A potential $1 trillion IPO for OpenAI has ignited a 40% rally in SoftBank shares, pushing its market capitalization past ¥40 trillion and dramatically narrowing its valuation gap with Toyota.
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SoftBank Surges 40% as OpenAI IPO Signals $1 Trillion Valuation
SoftBank's Stock Soars on Dual IPO Buzz
A potential $1 trillion IPO for OpenAI has ignited a 40% rally in SoftBank shares, pushing its market capitalization past ¥40 trillion and dramatically narrowing its valuation gap with Toyota.
SoftBank Group Corp. shares have climbed 40% since May 20, spurred by reports that its portfolio company OpenAI is preparing an initial public offering that could value the AI leader at over $1 trillion. The surge has pushed SoftBank’s market value above ¥40 trillion ($252 billion) and highlights investor eagerness to see the value of the Japanese conglomerate's private AI holdings realized on public markets.
"The market is 'extremely pleased' to see OpenAI’s long-anticipated IPO may be nearing reality," said Takashi Nakagawa, senior analyst at TokaiTokyo Intelligence Laboratory Co. "Right now the stock is moving purely based on expectation. I want to see how OpenAI’s market capitalization will stabilize."
The rally accelerated last week on reports that OpenAI could file for its IPO in the coming days and potentially list as early as September. SoftBank’s stock rose another 4.6% in Tokyo on Monday. The gains were further supported by a rally in chip designer Arm Holdings Plc, another key SoftBank asset, following strong earnings from Nvidia Corp. that reinforced the AI demand narrative.
The potential IPOs of OpenAI and SoftBank's power infrastructure unit, SB Energy, represent a critical test for founder Masayoshi Son's strategy of betting on a future dominated by artificial intelligence. A successful, high-valuation debut for OpenAI would not only provide a massive return on SoftBank's investment—a stake of roughly 13% by October for a total commitment of nearly $65 billion—but also set a new valuation benchmark for the entire AI sector, potentially lifting other holdings in SoftBank's Vision Fund.
Dual IPOs Fueling the Rally
The excitement stems from two distinct but related potential listings. The primary driver is OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, which is reportedly preparing for a public listing that could become one of the largest in history. Simultaneously, SoftBank's wholly-owned power subsidiary, SB Energy, announced it plans to confidentially file for an IPO in the US. This unit, which has raised over $1.8 billion in the last year from SoftBank, OpenAI, and Ares Management, is central to Son’s vision of building out the vast data center infrastructure required to power AI applications.
A Concentrated Bet on AI
SoftBank's surge reflects a broader market trend where a few key stocks are driving index gains. In Japan, the Nikkei 225's 58 percent rally was largely powered by just 14 companies, including SoftBank, which accounted for 65 percent of the gains, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of Bloomberg data. This concentration underscores the market's singular focus on AI-related stocks. SoftBank's portfolio, heavy with unlisted tech startups like ByteDance and Coupang, makes its stock a high-stakes proxy for investor sentiment on the AI revolution, dispelling recent concerns about rising competition to OpenAI from rivals like Anthropic PBC, Google, and xAI Corp.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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