Key Takeaways:
- Silver rose 1.5% to $56.85 after buyers defended the $55 support level
- TD Securities said money managers have reduced long silver exposure, pressuring prices
- Resistance at $60 and $65; a break below $55 would expose the $50 zone
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Silver stabilizes above $55 as buyers defend key support level
Silver edged higher Monday as buyers defended the $55-an-ounce level, with the metal trading at $56.85, up 1.5% after briefly slipping below that threshold on Friday to its lowest since December 2025.
"Money managers have also reduced their long silver exposure, which will apply downward pressure on prices due to weakening industrial and investment demand," TD Securities said in a note.
The metal remains 38.6% below its six-month high and 22.4% lower year-to-date, according to spot market data. The all-time high of $121.58 was set Jan. 29, while the 52-week low of $36.21 dates to July 31, 2025. The Relative Strength Index sits near 38, below the neutral 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has turned mildly positive, suggesting the recovery is corrective rather than a trend reversal.
The $55 floor is the immediate line in the sand. A break below that level would expose the $50 zone, where buyers would likely attempt to stem deeper losses. On the upside, initial resistance stands at $60, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at $70.58 and the 100-day SMA at $72.24. Middle East tensions are supporting the US Dollar, while energy-driven inflation risks keep hawkish Federal Reserve expectations alive, capping silver's upside for now.
COMEX positioning shows fading speculative appetite
TD Securities' positioning data points to a broader retrenchment in silver exposure as both industrial usage and investor interest show signs of cooling. The bank's analysis covers money manager flows on COMEX, where speculative long positions have been pared back in recent weeks.
On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD remains below the 100-period SMA at $58.94 and the 200-period SMA at $62.43, maintaining a bearish near-term bias. The 4-hour RSI at 47 stays near neutral, while the MACD has turned mildly positive, reinforcing the view that the bounce is corrective. Immediate resistance on this timeframe is $58, followed by $58.94 and then $60.
Silver at $56.85 compares with gold at $3,981.95 an ounce, putting the gold-to-silver ratio near 71, above the long-term average of about 65. Silver's dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input — roughly half of demand comes from electronics, solar panels and other industrial applications — means its recovery depends on both macro sentiment and the economic cycle. The next major catalyst is the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with markets pricing in a hold at the current 5.25% to 5.50% range.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
