Key Takeaways:
- Spot silver fell 8.31 percent to $67.75 after a blowout US jobs report
- The 200-day moving average at $67.62 was tested as sell stops triggered
- Rate hike odds jumped to 98 percent after May payrolls doubled expectations
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Silver plunges 8% as strong jobs data triggers margin-call selling
Spot silver tumbled 8.31 percent to $67.75 on Friday, the biggest single-day drop in months, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report.
"The selloff was mechanical, not fundamental — a liquidation event driven by margin calls and stacked sell stops," James Hyerczyk, a technical analyst with more than 40 years of market experience, said.
The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 85,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent for a third straight month. Money markets repriced rate expectations sharply, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end surging to 98 percent from 60 percent a week earlier. The US Dollar Index climbed to its strongest level since early April, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.5 percent.
The 200-day moving average at $67.62 is now the critical line for silver. A sustained break below that level could open the door to a deeper decline toward the major support cluster at $61.00, $60.83, and the December 2025 breakout level at $59.34. On the upside, resistance sits at the 50-day moving average of $76.15 inside the $74.63 to $83.61 retracement zone.
The breakdown accelerated after sellers pushed through the intermediate Fibonacci level at $71.84 and the main bottom at $70.86, triggering a cascade of sell stops that carried the market straight to the 200-day moving average. The session low of $67.57 briefly undercut that level before buyers stepped in.
The move was amplified by simultaneous selling in equities. The S&P 500 fell nearly 1 percent as leveraged positions across asset classes scrambled to raise cash. Silver, as one of the most liquid commodities, became the easiest source of funds. The dollar's surge compounded the pressure — every tick higher in the US Dollar Index makes silver more expensive for buyers using euros, yen, or yuan.
Physical market fundamentals remain unchanged. Mine production growth is constrained, and industrial demand from solar panel manufacturing, electronics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers continues to expand. Vault withdrawal data in China points to tightness beneath the paper market, according to exchange data.
Geopolitical risk also remains elevated. Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon on Friday, insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal. The rejection failed to generate any safe-haven buying for silver, as the macro data overwhelmed all other signals.
Monday's session will determine whether the 200-day moving average holds as support. If equities stabilize, the mechanical selling pressure subsides and the supply deficit story can reassert itself. Another down day in stocks, however, could trigger a second wave of margin-call liquidation in silver.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
