Shopify Inc. is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 5, with revenue expected to climb more than 30 percent to $3.12 billion as investors weigh the company’s artificial intelligence ambitions against persistent margin headwinds.
"Materiality of agentic bear case is feeling better understood, though upside potential is still far from clear," Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss said, highlighting the need for clearer execution signals around Shopify's AI-driven commerce strategy.
Analysts project Shopify will report adjusted earnings of 33 cents per share, a significant turnaround from the 53-cent loss in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is seen rising from $2.36 billion, which would extend its run of 11 consecutive quarters with at least 25 percent revenue growth.
The results come as Shopify's shares have fallen 21 percent year-to-date, and the report is seen as a crucial test of whether its growth narrative can overcome broader software-sector concerns and pressure on the consumer. Observers will be watching for evidence that Shopify's growth trajectory is holding up against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions that have softened consumer sentiment.
Despite these headwinds, U.S. e-commerce demand has remained durable, with first-quarter non-store sales growth looking healthy, according to Weiss. This provides a resilient backdrop for Shopify's core business.
A third key area of focus will be the company's path to profitability. Investors are watching how management balances reinvesting in key growth drivers, such as its expanding fulfillment network and new product initiatives, with demonstrating operating leverage. Weiss expects margins to be around 15.5 percent as the company continues its investment cycle.
The upcoming report will provide critical insight into whether the company's heavy investment in AI and other growth areas can sustain its trajectory and justify its valuation. Investors will be looking for commentary on the earnings call for an updated outlook on segment margins and the impact of new product spending on profitability for the remainder of fiscal 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
