Samson Mow's claim that Bitcoin has already bottomed has split the market, pitting believers in an accelerated cycle against analysts who see a deeper drawdown to the mid-$50,000s.
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Samson Mow calls Bitcoin bottom at $60,000 as cycle debate splits market
Samson Mow's claim that Bitcoin has already bottomed has split the market, pitting believers in an accelerated cycle against analysts who see a deeper drawdown to the mid-$50,000s.
Bitcoin traded near $59,400 on June 25 after Samson Mow declared the bottom is in, challenging analyst forecasts for a drop to $55,000 or lower.
"Bitcoin reaching an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving suggests the traditional four-year cycle has accelerated," Mow, the former chief strategy officer at Blockstream, said in an X post on June 28.
Other analysts disagree. Markus Thielen of 10x Research sees a bottom near $55,000 between August and October, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasts $40,000 within six months. CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten said Bitcoin may need to fall 15% or more to mark a durable low, citing the 200-week moving average as a key battleground in the $50,000 to $54,000 range.
The debate carries implications for the broader crypto market. A record 10.7 million Bitcoin — the most ever — were held at a loss as of June 25, according to Glassnode, a reading that has historically coincided with local price bottoms. Whether that pattern repeats may depend on whether falling oil prices cool inflation enough to keep the Federal Reserve from resuming rate hikes.
Record Supply in Loss Flashes Historical Signal
Glassnode data shows total supply in loss reached 10,694,567 BTC on June 25, the highest figure on record. The metric counts every coin whose last move happened at a higher price than today. Two earlier peaks this cycle — near 9.9 million coins in February and another spike in November — landed close to local price bottoms, according to the on-chain data provider.
The reading now sits alongside Bitcoin's test of the $60,000 level. The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold stands at 0.364, a moderately positive link that tends to strengthen during macro shocks as buyers rotate into safe havens, CoinGecko data shows.
Oil Slide and the Fed Calculus
Brent crude has fallen 27% over the past month to about $74 a barrel, easing one of the biggest drivers of headline inflation. May CPI rose 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three years, with energy costs up 23.5% over 12 months. Core inflation stayed calmer at 2.9%, suggesting the spike was an energy shock rather than broad price pressure.
The Federal Reserve left its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, citing sticky inflation and a firm labor market. On Polymarket, the odds of a 2026 rate hike eased to 53% from 66% on June 20 as crude prices declined. Lower yields — the 10-year Treasury slipped to about 4.41% on June 24, its lowest in six weeks — could lift both gold and Bitcoin together if the trend holds.
What Comes Next
The April 2028 halving will cut new supply to about 225 coins per day, tightening an already scarce market where 95% of all Bitcoin has been mined. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies together hold roughly 12% of every coin in existence, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. Even as ETF outflows reached $6 billion over six straight weeks, treasury firms such as Strive continued buying the dip, adding 759 coins at about $65,850 each.
For now, the $60,000 level represents a test of macro sentiment rather than just chart support. A break below that threshold could push more coins into loss and extend the drawdown, while a hold would strengthen the case that Mow's accelerated-cycle thesis has merit.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin Bottom Call From Samson Mow Splits Market as Four-Year Cycle Gets Questioned[2] Samson Mow says bitcoin bottom is in despite skepticism from analysts[3] Optimism Crypto Price Prediction, Value and Chart (OP)[4] Bitcoin’s Supply-in-Loss Hits an All-Time High: Why That Might Not Mean a Bottom...[5] How Much Will One Bitcoin Be Worth in 2030?
