Key Takeaways:
An independent researcher has won a 1 Bitcoin prize for using a public quantum computer to break a 15-bit elliptic curve (ECC) key, marking the largest public demonstration of an attack class that could one day threaten Bitcoin’s core security.
“We should look at it as a sign that technology is moving forward (and that is good), and we should not sleep on it,” researcher Giancarlo Lelli said after Project Eleven awarded him the prize on April 24.
The winning attack used a 70-qubit machine to crack the key, a cryptographic puzzle with 32,767 possible solutions. While minuscule compared to the 256-bit keys securing active Bitcoin wallets, the achievement represents a 512x jump in complexity from a similar public demonstration just seven months prior. Project Eleven, which organized the prize, estimates roughly 6.9 million Bitcoin worth over $450 billion sit in older wallets with exposed public keys, making them a potential target for a future, more powerful quantum computer.
“We’re still far, objectively, from the point at which you could actually break Bitcoin,” Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden said. “Our own prediction for Q-Day is 2029 in the worst case.”
The demonstration adds urgency to the race for quantum-resistant cryptography. Bitcoin developers are currently weighing proposals like BIP-360 and BIP-361 to transition the network to safer cryptographic standards. Other major blockchains, including Ethereum, Tron, and StarkWare, have also published post-quantum transition roadmaps.
The threat is being accelerated by rapid hardware and software advances. In March, Google set a 2029 deadline to make its own systems quantum-resistant, citing shrinking estimates for the resources needed to break current encryption. A recent Google research paper estimated a full 256-bit break could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, down from earlier estimates in the millions. Pruden also noted that advances in artificial intelligence could speed up the timeline by improving quantum error correction.
Not all experts agree on the timeline. Blockstream CEO Adam Back, a veteran cryptographer, stated the threat is likely still decades away, though he supports preparing solutions now. For now, the crypto markets have shown little reaction, with an Ethereum-based prediction market showing just a 0.1% chance of a price collapse related to the news.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
