Key Takeaways:
Prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket are planning to offer crypto perpetual futures, entering one of the largest and most volatile segments of the digital asset market which saw nominal trading volume climb to $61.7 trillion in 2025.
"This is a natural product extension for Polymarket and Kalshi's existing customers," Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, said. Mizuho's Dan Dolev characterized the strategy as "a defensive move more than it is an offensive move," aimed at guarding against future disruption from crypto-native platforms.
Perpetual futures, known as "perps," are contracts without an expiration date that make up more than 70% of all volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to data from CoinGecko. This trading volume represented a 29% increase from 2024, far outpacing the 9% growth in spot crypto trading over the same period. The convergence is fueled by a massive user overlap, demonstrated by Robinhood's partnership with Kalshi, which attracted over 1 million customers who traded 11 billion contracts in 2025.
The potential expansion brings these platforms into direct competition with crypto giants like Coinbase and Robinhood, but the primary challenge is navigating the significant regulatory and national security risks. The move aims to onshore products that have historically flourished on offshore exchanges like Binance, partly due to a lack of clear regulatory pathways in the U.S.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signaled its intent to create a pathway for "true perpetual derivatives" to be offered onshore with appropriate safeguards. However, the convergence is drawing intense scrutiny. A recent indictment unsealed in New York alleges a U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant used classified intelligence to profit over $409,000 by betting on the capture of a foreign leader via Polymarket. This case highlights the national security risks posed by event contracts, where insiders could leak classified information by wagering on geopolitical outcomes. Experts warn that as these markets grow, the financial incentive to trade on non-public information rises, compounding the risk.
Despite the enormous market size, analysts have downplayed the immediate threat to incumbent crypto exchanges. "It'd be hard to ask people from Coinbase or Binance or Robinhood to abandon their existing platform and go to [them]," Lau said. The success of Kalshi and Polymarket will depend heavily on how the products are structured, particularly regarding the auto-deleveraging systems common in offshore venues, which have led to massive liquidation cascades and have made U.S. regulators cautious.
If the CFTC and U.S. operators can successfully launch these products without the cascading liquidation risk, it could pave the way for expansion into other asset classes. Lau noted that bringing perpetual contracts to the S&P 500, energy, or individual stocks "will become a more interesting phenomenon."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
