Key Takeaways:
Polymarket has become an unlikely on-ramp to crypto, with 60% of its World Cup bettors having no prior blockchain activity.
About 60% of users who placed their first World Cup bets on Polymarket had never interacted with blockchain protocols before, according to a Bitget Wallet study of 857,000 active users.
"Prediction markets shifted that dynamic — users show up because they have a view on something happening in the world," Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, said.
The World Cup winner contract alone has generated more than $3.1 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, platform data shows. Daily taker volume across all prediction markets reached a record $713 million on June 20, according to Dune Analytics. On Kalshi, sports contracts generated $8.5 billion over the past 30 days, making them the platform's largest category. Polymarket sports contracts ranked first with more than $4.9 billion in the same period, Defirate data shows.
The surge has drawn regulatory scrutiny. Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket on June 17, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting. At least 17 other states have taken similar action, and the CFTC later sued eight states over jurisdiction disputes.
World Cup drives record volume
A June 11 Bernstein report predicted the 2026 FIFA World Cup would generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume. Polymarket has already surpassed the lower end of that range on its winner contract alone.
The platform has also produced notable winners and losers. One user wagered nearly $2 million on Egypt to cover a 1.5-goal spread against New Zealand, netting about $1 million in profit after Egypt's three-goal second-half comeback. Another user lost $584,627 betting on Uruguay to beat Cabo Verde, which instead drew 2-2 after holding Spain to a goalless draw in its opener.
Onboarding effect challenges traditional crypto adoption paths
Kan said earlier crypto onboarding efforts focused on making blockchain technology easier to understand through simpler wallets and better user interfaces, but users were still expected to learn how crypto worked before they could participate. Prediction markets removed that requirement.
The finding suggests prediction markets are becoming an entry point into crypto instead of token trading or DeFi protocols, Bitget Wallet said. About 60% of users who placed their first World Cup bets on Polymarket had never interacted with blockchain protocols before, based on the 90-day study tracking onchain activity.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
