Oil prices jump over 7% after attack on Iran's capital

Oil prices surged over 7% after market sources reported that Iran's capital, Tehran, has been attacked, sparking fears of a significant escalation in Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to crude supply. Brent crude futures jumped 7.6% to $108.81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 7.1% to $107.18 a barrel, marking the biggest daily gains in three weeks.

"Markets are reacting to the absence of any clear mention of ceasefire or diplomatic engagement," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. The sharp move reversed earlier losses and highlighted market sensitivity to the fragile situation in the region.

The rally in crude was accompanied by a flight to safety in other markets. Gold prices pushed higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, while global equity futures turned lower on concerns that higher energy costs could fuel inflation and dampen economic growth. The U.S. Dollar also strengthened on risk aversion.

The key concern for energy markets is the potential for disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles about a fifth of the world's oil supply. "If tensions intensify or maritime risks increase, oil could test fresh highs as markets price in potential supply disruptions," Sachdeva added. These fears were heightened by a report on Wednesday that an oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters.

The market's sharp reaction underscores the significant risk premium now being priced into oil. The last time a similar direct confrontation occurred in the region, it triggered a multi-week rally in crude prices that pushed global stocks into a correction. "The next critical signal for markets lies in Iran’s response and that of the international community," Rystad Energy said in a note. Investors are now watching for any signs of further escalation or a potential diplomatic off-ramp, however unlikely that may seem at present.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.