Oil Prices Erase Gains as Iran Attacks Tanker Near Strait of Hormuz

(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices jumped more than 2% in early trading, reversing a week of declines after a fresh attack on a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz reignited fears of a prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The incident immediately overshadowed recent optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported on April 18 that two Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboats approached an oil tanker and opened fire, according to a statement from the vessel’s captain. The tanker and its crew were reported to be safe, but the attack marks a significant escalation after a brief lull.

The hostile action represents a sharp reversal from just a day earlier. On Friday, Brent crude futures had settled below the key $100 mark at $98.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $93.80. Prices had been falling on reports of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a deal with Iran was "very close," which spurred hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

At stake is the flow of roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day that analysts from ING estimate has been choked off by the seven-week closure of the strait. The new attack puts any timeline for resuming normal tanker traffic in serious doubt and suggests that geopolitical risk will continue to add a significant premium to crude prices, threatening to unwind the recent dip below $100 per barrel that followed a record 50% price surge in March.

The market’s whipsaw reaction highlights the extreme sensitivity of energy markets to the volatile situation in the Gulf. Before the attack, traders had been pricing in a higher probability of a diplomatic resolution. U.S. and Iranian negotiators were reportedly seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict. However, the IRGC’s direct engagement with a commercial tanker challenges the narrative that tensions were easing.

The attack is likely to cause a spike in shipping and insurance costs for any vessel considering transit in the region, adding further inflationary pressure to the global economy. The move is also prompting a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold and the U.S. dollar expected to see increased demand as investors pull back from riskier assets. The development places renewed focus on the sustainability of global oil inventories and the capacity of other producers to offset the prolonged disruption.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.