Brent crude futures plunged by the most in months after reports that Washington and Tehran are close to a deal to end their conflict, potentially reopening a key channel for global energy supplies.
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Oil prices drop over 8% on US-Iran de-escalation report
Brent crude fell more than 8% to near $102 a barrel on Wednesday after reports emerged that the US and Iran are nearing a one-page agreement to end their conflict, easing geopolitical tensions that have kept oil prices elevated for months.
"Washington’s optimistic rhetoric and its reluctance to escalate tensions are allowing markets to view a peace agreement between the US and Iran as the base case scenario," Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said in a note.
The sell-off saw West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, also fall around 8% to $94.32 per barrel. The risk-on mood rippled across markets, with US stock futures rallying sharply. Dow futures pointed to an opening gain of over 400 points, while the Nasdaq was set to open up by more than 1 percent.
The potential deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for about a fifth of the world's oil supply that has been largely impassable. While a resumption of shipping could provide short-term price relief, analysts suggest a return to pre-war price levels below $72 a barrel for Brent remains unlikely due to depleted global inventories and infrastructure damage.
According to reports citing anonymous sources, the one-page memorandum would declare an end to the war and initiate a 30-day negotiation period to resolve key issues including Iran's nuclear program and the security of the strait. The news follows weeks of volatile trading where prices have swung sharply on signs of escalation and de-escalation.
US officials signaled a shift in strategy, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling reporters that "Operation Epic Fury is concluded." President Donald Trump later posted on social media that a US-led effort to assist stranded ships would be "paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed," though he added that a blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect.
However, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed skepticism, stating it was "impossible" for Iran to negotiate while under a "policy of maximum pressure."
The diplomatic push involves other major powers, with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened "as soon as possible" during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart in Beijing. China, a major importer of Iranian oil, has a significant economic interest in the strait's security, having imported 1.38 million barrels per day from Iran in 2025, accounting for about 12% of its total crude imports.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] US and Iran reportedly may end war first, then set a 30-day negotiation period[2] Oil prices plunge on reports that the US and Iran are close to a peace deal[3] Brent is heading towards de-escalation | FXStreet[4] China calls for Strait to be reopened 'as soon as possible' in Iran talks[5] US Says Offensive Phase of Iran War Over as Ship Hit in Strait
