Oil prices diverge as Hormuz tanker U-turn adds to supply fears

An unexplained U-turn by two empty oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 has injected fresh uncertainty into global energy markets, revealing a deep divide between headline-driven futures and the strained reality of physical supply. The incident occurred near Iran's Larak Island as U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan were reportedly concluding, undercutting hopes for an immediate stabilization of the critical waterway.

"Refined products like diesel and jet fuel have dropped... because markets are forward-looking—they price in expectations," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management. "But we’re still well above prewar levels, which were around $60 to $70."

While news of a potential ceasefire saw Brent crude futures fall roughly 15 percent to around $94 per barrel from $110 earlier in the week, physical markets told a different story. Vessel tracking data showed a Greek-managed tanker destined for Iraq and a second tanker from Pakistan’s national shipping line abruptly reversing course. The move highlights the operational risks that remain even as diplomatic efforts progress.

The disruption underscores how fragile the global energy system is when a single chokepoint is compromised. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20 percent of global oil flows, and traffic has plummeted by an estimated 95 percent during the recent conflict. The result is a market caught between cautious optimism and a logistical crisis, where the risk premium for physical delivery continues to climb.

Over 1,800 Vessels in Regional Gridlock

The situation in the Persian Gulf has devolved into a full-blown logistical nightmare, paralyzing a vital artery of global trade. More than 800 cargo ships and tankers are currently stuck inside the Gulf, with another 1,000 vessels waiting on either side of the strait. Under normal conditions, about 150 vessels transit daily; clearing the current backlog could take weeks, if not longer.

"I don’t think we’ll return to prewar levels anytime soon," said Carsten Ladekjær, CEO at Glander International Bunkering. "There’s damaged infrastructure, disrupted production, and ongoing bottlenecks."

Compounding the shipping delays, energy infrastructure across the region has suffered significant damage. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on some liquefied natural gas contracts, and Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a fire. These onshore disruptions limit the ability of producers to reroute supply, meaning both primary and alternative export routes are under pressure.

Physical Crude Hits Record Premiums

The scramble for immediate barrels has sent prices for physical cargoes soaring. North Sea crude grades have surged to record premiums as European and Asian refiners compete for non-Middle Eastern supply. This widening gap between spot prices and futures contracts is a classic signal of an acute, near-term shortage.

Import-dependent nations are already taking action. Japan, which sources 93 percent of its energy from the region, is preparing to release oil from its strategic reserves to cushion the blow. This move is part of a coordinated effort among major economies to stabilize markets, but such measures only buy time.

Even announcements of future supply increases, such as Russia's forecast to raise its 2026 output to 515 million tons, do little to solve the immediate problem. The core issue is not a lack of oil, but the inability to move it to where it is needed. For investors, the lesson being relearned in real time is that in a tight market, logistical friction is where volatility lives.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.