Oil Price Peak Possible in Weeks, US Energy Secretary Says, if Hormuz Reopens

Oil prices will likely hit their peak for the current crisis within a few weeks of the Strait of Hormuz reopening to substantial traffic, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said, offering a potential timeline for relief after Brent crude pushed back toward $100 per barrel.

"Until we see a material opening of the Strait, we are going to see energy prices remain high, and they could even go higher," Wright said at the Semafor World Economic Forum in Washington. "That is probably when you will see the peak. That will probably be sometime in the next few weeks."

The comment comes as the market digests a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Front-month Brent crude futures traded 0.9 percent higher at $96.77 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.6 percent to $98.42. The uncertainty has left hundreds of vessels, including 426 oil tankers, stranded near the critical chokepoint which handles one-fifth of global oil supply.

Wright's forecast hinges entirely on a geopolitical resolution that has so far failed to materialize. While a ceasefire is in place, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retains control over passage, creating significant upside risk to prices. Analysts at JP Morgan warn that a slow reopening dragging into July could send oil back to its wartime peak of nearly $120 a barrel.

The market remains on edge, balancing hopes of de-escalation against the reality on the water. Maritime intelligence firm Windward confirmed Thursday that there has been "no return to open commercial navigation," with transit remaining "restricted, coordinated, and selectively enforced" by Iran. This gives Tehran significant leverage in upcoming formal talks, leaving the global energy market vulnerable to any breakdown in negotiations.

Banks Model $100-Plus Oil Under Delayed Reopening

Major investment banks are increasingly modeling for a period of sustained high prices. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average over $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 if the strait remains largely blocked for another month. Standard Chartered, which had forecast Brent at $98 per barrel for the second quarter, noted that prices are likely to remain $10-to-$20 per barrel higher than pre-conflict levels due to logistical lags and strategic reserve purchasing, even after a resolution.

The risk is not just a return to previous highs, but a prolonged period of volatility. The two-week ceasefire window is intended to finalize a permanent settlement, but any rhetoric suggesting talks are failing could trigger another price spike. For now, the market is caught between the U.S. government's cautiously optimistic timeline and the hard reality of Iran's control over a vital artery of global trade.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.