Oil Dips Below $100 as U.S.-Iran Deal Signals 60-Day Truce

A tentative agreement between the U.S. and Iran to pause their three-month-old conflict sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude falling nearly 1.5 percent to $99 a barrel as markets priced in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework, which U.S. President Donald Trump said has been “largely negotiated,” sets the stage for a 60-day ceasefire to allow for high-stakes nuclear negotiations.

“There was ‘a pretty solid thing on the table’ in terms of Iran’s ability to open up the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a real significant time limited negotiation on nuclear matters,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday during a visit to India, while cautioning that the deal is “still a work in progress.”

The prospect of de-escalation triggered a risk-on response in broader markets. U.S. crude dropped almost 5 percent to about $92 a barrel, while Bitcoin climbed toward $78,400. The national average for a gallon of gasoline, however, remained elevated at $4.51, up 51 percent since the war began on February 28. The deal, if finalized, would create a two-month window for markets to operate with reduced uncertainty but kicks the can down the road on the thorniest issues.

The proposed pact is a temporary framework, not a comprehensive peace treaty. It reportedly includes a 60-day extension of the current fragile truce, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes—and the start of dedicated nuclear talks. In exchange, Iran would potentially see a loosening of the U.S. naval blockade and, according to some reports, the unfreezing of billions in assets, a point U.S. officials have disputed.

Framework for a Fragile Peace

The core of the agreement is a 60-day negotiating period. A senior Trump administration official described the structure as “‘trust but verify’ on steroids,” stating, “if Iran doesn’t perform, they don’t get anything. No dust? No dollars.” This refers to President Trump’s term for Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, estimated by the IAEA at 408 kilograms enriched to 60 percent. How this stockpile would be disposed of remains a key point for the next phase of negotiations.

The conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, has had far-reaching consequences, including disrupting supply chains for countries as distant as Myanmar. The war also inadvertently elevated Ukraine's geopolitical standing. Kyiv has leveraged its hard-won expertise in drone warfare against Russian and Iranian-made drones to provide security assistance and technology to Gulf nations, transforming itself from an aid recipient into a security contributor.

Washington's Divided Reaction

The potential deal has been met with sharp criticism from both sides of the aisle in Washington. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said the deal was “doomed to fail” without congressional oversight, while Democratic Senator Cory Booker suggested President Trump was “being played as a fool.” The last major diplomatic effort with Iran, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a frequent target of then-candidate Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from the pact.

President Trump has pushed back, stating, “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama.” He added that his deal is the “exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is.” The administration’s ability to secure a deal that lowers gas prices could be a significant factor for the upcoming midterm elections, as noted by House Speaker Mike Johnson. However, with a senior U.S. official telling reporters it could still take a “few more days” to finalize the wording, the fragile peace hangs in the balance.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.