Oil Climbs 5.3% to $105, Erasing Bitcoin and Stock Gains

Edgen Stock

·Mar 31 2026, 03:34

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Key Takeaways

WTI crude oil's significant rise to nearly $105 per barrel on March 30 pressured risk assets, erasing early gains in stocks and Bitcoin. This market downturn occurred despite dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which had initially calmed the bond market and lowered expectations for interest rate hikes.

Crude Oil Pressures Markets: WTI crude oil climbed 5.3% to close just under $105 per barrel, its first settlement above $100 since 2022.
Risk Assets Decline: The inflation fears sent the Nasdaq down 0.75% and the S&P 500 down 0.4%, while Bitcoin retreated to $66,500, giving up its earlier advances.
Fed's Dovish Stance Ignored: Powell's comments caused the market-implied probability of a 2026 rate hike to fall from 25% to 5%, but this was not enough to sustain investor confidence.

Oil's 5.3% Climb Overrides Fed's Dovish Signals

Risk assets gave up their early gains on Monday as a sharp increase in oil prices overshadowed reassuring comments from the Federal Reserve. WTI crude oil climbed 5.3% to settle just shy of $105 per barrel, marking its first close above the $100 level since 2022. This spike in energy costs fueled inflation concerns, pushing the Nasdaq down 0.75% and the S&P 500 lower by 0.4%. Bitcoin also reversed course, retreating to $66,500 and wiping out its gains for the day.

Bond Market Calms as Rate Hike Odds Fall to 5%

Earlier in the day, the bond market had responded positively to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Speaking at Harvard University, Powell indicated the central bank is inclined to look past the current energy price shock for now, citing that inflation expectations remain "well anchored." His remarks sent bond yields lower, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling nine basis points to 4.35% and the 2-year yield sliding eight basis points to 3.83%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, these comments caused the market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike to plummet from 25% on Friday to just 5%.