Earnings to Test $65.7B Revenue Expectation
Nvidia is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on February 25, after market close, in a release that will serve as a key barometer for the entire artificial intelligence industry. The chipmaker has forecasted impressive sales of $65 billion, though Wall Street consensus estimates are slightly more optimistic, projecting revenues of $65.7 billion—a 67% increase year-over-year—and earnings of $1.52 per share. This report comes as the company's stock has largely consolidated since August 2025, making the upcoming announcement a potential catalyst to break the recent trading range.
Investors are focused not just on the Q4 performance but, more critically, on the company's forward guidance. Projections for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 are currently pegged between $71 billion and $72 billion, with gross margins expected to remain strong in the 73% to 75% range. A decisive beat and a strong outlook confirming that customer demand still outpaces supply could reignite investor enthusiasm. Conversely, merely meeting expectations or offering any hint of slowing demand could trigger a sell-the-news reaction in a market that is actively reevaluating AI stock valuations.
Hedge Funds Add 1.6M Shares on $600B Capex Outlook
The broader financial backdrop appears to support Nvidia's continued growth trajectory. Major hyperscale companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, are collectively projected to invest over $600 billion in capital expenditures during 2026, with a significant portion allocated to building out AI infrastructure. This massive spending cycle forms the foundation of the bullish case for Nvidia, whose GPUs are essential for AI data centers.
This positive macro outlook is reflected in the positioning of institutional investors. Ahead of the earnings release, hedge funds demonstrated a clear bias by increasing their holdings by a net 1.6 million Nvidia shares last quarter, according to data from TipRanks. Several funds, including Spence Asset Management and Pachira Investments, either initiated new positions or significantly increased their existing stakes. This net buying activity indicates that many large-scale investors are betting that strong AI demand will continue to drive Nvidia's financial performance, despite wider market uncertainty.
