Key Takeaways
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz puts the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing at 70%, telling investors that Republican lawmakers “need to get the bill done because they campaigned on it.” The influential CEO also said Bitcoin (BTC) needs to first break the $84,000 level to unlock a path to $100,000.
"Republicans need to get the bill done," Mike Novogratz, CEO at Galaxy Digital, said in a statement on May 6, 2026.
Novogratz's 70% probability is notably higher than current market-implied odds. Following a legislative breakthrough on stablecoin rules, odds on the prediction market Polymarket jumped to 64% for the bill to pass by year-end. The CEO's forecast suggests growing confidence in the bill's momentum as it heads toward a planned Senate Banking Committee markup this month.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as the single most important catalyst for the US digital asset market, as it would establish a clear jurisdictional line between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulatory clarity is considered a prerequisite for significant institutional capital to enter the space, as it would allow firms to size positions with confidence.
The crypto market has already begun to price in the positive momentum. After lawmakers reached a bipartisan compromise on stablecoin yield provisions on May 1, crypto-related equities saw a sharp repricing. Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, led the rally with a gain of over 18%, while Coinbase (COIN) rose 7% and BitGo (BTGO) climbed 10%.
The compromise addresses one of the bill's most contentious points by prohibiting passive, interest-bearing yields on stablecoins—preventing direct competition with bank deposits—while allowing for activity-linked rewards. This structural distinction was enough to bring key industry players like Coinbase and Circle back to the negotiating table, creating a viable path to a Senate floor vote.
Senator Tim Scott, the Senate Banking Committee Chairman, is reportedly pushing to get the bill to the president's desk by summer 2026. However, failure to pass the bill out of committee in the May window could freeze progress for years, according to Senator Bernie Moreno, as midterm election dynamics would make any crypto-related legislation politically difficult.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
