North Korea to boost nuclear arsenal by 10 warheads a year with new plant

North Korea is accelerating its nuclear weapons program with a new uranium enrichment plant capable of producing enough material for 5-10 warheads annually, the UN’s atomic watchdog warned.

North Korea has made “very serious” advances in its ability to produce nuclear weapons, with satellite imagery confirming a new uranium enrichment facility at its primary Yongbyon nuclear complex is nearing completion, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said Wednesday. The expansion, which includes heightened activity at a 5-megawatt reactor and reprocessing unit, could significantly increase Pyongyang's capacity to produce weapons-grade material, adding to an arsenal already estimated at 50-70 warheads.

"All of them point to a very serious increase in the capabilities of the DPRK in the area of nuclear weapons production," Grossi said during a visit to Seoul. He noted the new building shares similarities with a known enrichment facility at Kangson, near Pyongyang, and that its external features suggest a significant expansion of enrichment capacity.

The warning from the IAEA chief was corroborated by a new analysis from the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which stated that satellite imagery from April shows the suspected uranium enrichment plant at Yongbyon is externally complete and likely nearing operational status. Analysts estimate the new facility could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for an additional five to 10 warheads per year. The development follows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s vow last August to pursue a “rapid expansion of nuclearisation.”

This escalation raises geopolitical risk in East Asia, threatening to trigger a flight to safety in global markets toward assets like the U.S. dollar and gold, while potentially increasing volatility in regional equity markets such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Japan’s Nikkei. The move solidifies Kim’s view that a nuclear arsenal is critical for regime survival, a stance hardened after diplomatic talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed more than seven years ago.

Yongbyon Expansion Details

The increased activity is not isolated to the new enrichment building. Grossi confirmed a "rapid rise in activity" across the entire Yongbyon complex, a site central to North Korea's nuclear ambitions since its first nuclear test in 2006. This includes the five-megawatt reactor, which produces spent fuel, and the reprocessing unit used to extract plutonium from that fuel—a separate pathway to obtaining fissile material.

The CSIS report noted that while internal construction appears ongoing, the facility's completion would "significantly increase" the number of nuclear weapons available to North Korea. This dual-track approach of producing both plutonium and highly enriched uranium complicates international efforts to monitor and constrain the country's program.

International and Regional Reaction

The developments come as diplomatic efforts remain stalled. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has previously warned that North Korea could be producing enough material for 10 to 20 nuclear weapons a year, creating a global danger if excess materials are exported.

In response to the growing threat, South Korea is pursuing its own program to build nuclear-powered submarines, a plan approved by the U.S. last November. Grossi said the IAEA has invited Seoul to work closely with the agency to manage proliferation risks associated with naval reactors, where nuclear fuel can go uninspected for long periods. "It is essential that this activity is not conducive to proliferation of nuclear weapons," Grossi stated, adding the agency would seek an "ironclad guarantee" against any diversion of material.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.