Netanyahu says finger on trigger, ceasefire just 1 phase

A fragile US-Iran ceasefire is already cracking as Israel insists its war in Lebanon is separate, a stance that prompted Tehran to threaten the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane once more.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday the two-week US-Iran ceasefire is merely a single phase in achieving Israel’s goals, declaring his nation’s finger remains “on the trigger” to resume fighting.

“This is not the end of the campaign,” Netanyahu said at a press conference. “We still have some goals to accomplish, and we will achieve these goals, either from agreement and consensus, or from renewal of the war.”

The comments injected immediate uncertainty into the fragile truce, which had sent Brent crude futures tumbling 13% to around $95 a barrel. Following Israel’s largest-yet strikes on Lebanon Wednesday—which it says are not covered by the deal—Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported tanker traffic was halted in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes.

The divergence exposes a critical split between Washington and its closest Middle East ally, threatening to unravel a deal aimed at preventing a wider regional war. With US officials heading to Pakistan for talks this weekend, the conflict over Israel's actions in Lebanon has become the immediate flashpoint that could reignite the entire conflict.

Netanyahu’s primary stated objective is the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, a goal he said would be achieved “by agreement or by resuming the fighting.” His stance reflects a long-held Israeli belief that the military campaign must continue to weaken the Iranian regime, with one former senior official telling Politico that “one or two more months” could hasten its collapse. This position contrasts with that of US President Donald Trump, who has pushed for a deal and claimed military objectives have been met.

The ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, is already being tested. While Trump announced the two-week pause Tuesday evening, his administration has been firm that the agreement does not extend to Israel's separate conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. “That’s a separate skirmish,” Trump told PBS. This interpretation directly contradicts that of the deal's mediators and Iran. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated the deal included Lebanon, a point echoed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said the US must choose between a “ceasefire or continued war via Israel.”

In response to Israel’s continued bombardment of Lebanon, which killed at least 182 people on Wednesday according to Lebanon's health ministry, Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz again. The move threatens to reverse the brief market relief that saw the S&P 500 surge 2.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise over 1,000 points. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called reports of the strait's closure “completely unacceptable,” insisting that traffic had seen an uptick.

The last time a major conflict threatened the Strait of Hormuz during the 1980s "Tanker War," oil prices spiked and required international naval intervention to secure passage. Today, the stakes are even higher given the global economy's fragile state. As US negotiators including Vice President JD Vance prepare for talks in Islamabad, the immediate challenge will be to reconcile the opposing views on Lebanon before the ceasefire collapses entirely, potentially pushing oil prices back above $100 and renewing pressure on global markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.