Morgan Stanley sets HKD990 target for MiniMax on strong AI agent growth

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Chinese AI firm MiniMax (00100.HK) with an "Overweight" rating and a HKD990 price target, arguing the market has underestimated the company's growth in high-value AI agent workflows and multimodal applications.

The bank believes MiniMax's annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth will be "in line with or even stronger than its peers," according to the research report. Management indicated that tokens per minute (TPM), a key metric for AI consumption, have been increasing by 10% to 20% weekly.

The bank forecasts MiniMax’s revenue to reach $240 million in 2026, growing to $712 million in 2027 and $1.531 billion in 2028. This growth is supported by the company's large language models (LLMs) which have already entered key 2026 token consumption drivers like coding and AI agents. The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow, equivalent to a 56x 2027 price-to-sales ratio.

For investors, the report suggests MiniMax's recent 40-percentage-point underperformance relative to rival Zhipu (02513.HK) presents a buying opportunity. Morgan Stanley sees multiple short-term catalysts, including new agent products and significant upgrades to its M3 and Hailuo-O3 models, which could rerate the stock.

Morgan Stanley’s optimism is rooted in three core areas where it believes the market is mispricing MiniMax. First is the company's demonstrated strength in agentic workflows, which drive higher token consumption. The reported 10-20% weekly growth in TPM suggests rapid adoption and deepening usage of its platforms for complex, automated tasks.

Second, the bank highlighted the underestimated commercial potential of multimodality. While LLMs effectively monetize intelligent productivity use cases, the report argues that multimodal models—which process text, images, and other data types—are positioned to capture the creative productivity market, a potentially vast and lucrative application space.

Third, MiniMax benefits from a secure global supply of advanced chipsets through major cloud partners, a critical advantage in a supply-constrained environment. This, combined with superior unit economics from infrastructure optimization, allows the company to scale efficiently. The report contrasts MiniMax’s situation with competitor Zhipu, which the market expects to see faster ARR acceleration driven by a narrower focus on coding and agents.

Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of catalysts in the next two to three months that could close the valuation gap. These include the potential launch of new agent products, significant upgrades to the core M3 and Hailuo-O3 models, and possible price increases tied to the new releases. Potential inclusion in major stock indexes was also cited as a future driver for the stock.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.