Key Takeaways:
- Haitong International maintained its outperform rating on Minimax-W (00100)
- ARR surged from $100 million to over $150 million in two months
- The company targets $1 billion in annualized revenue run rate for 2026
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Minimax-W maintains outperform as ARR surges past $150 million
Haitong International reaffirmed its outperform rating on Minimax-W (00100), citing annualized revenue run rate growth from $100 million to more than $150 million in two months.
"The company's ability to scale ARR from roughly $100 million at year-end 2025 to over $150 million by February 2026, with further acceleration through April, demonstrates commercial validation of its AI platform," Haitong International said in a July 28 report.
The broker highlighted Minimax's progress on a next-generation model with roughly 3 trillion parameters, built on a mixture-of-experts architecture with sparse attention and KV cache compression. The company's M3 model initially faced margin pressure from promotional pricing but has since achieved meaningful gross margin improvement through optimization, according to the report.
Minimax is targeting $1 billion in annualized revenue run rate for 2026, a roughly tenfold increase from year-end 2025 levels. The stock's re-rating depends on whether the company can sustain cost-per-token declines faster than market pricing, the broker said.
The Chinese AI developer has prioritized compute efficiency per unit of intelligence output, coordinating model architecture design, proprietary infrastructure, and inference software to reduce token costs. Haitong noted that as model capabilities converge across the industry, the ratio of capability to price will increasingly drive enterprise customer migration and application expansion.
The broker identified several catalysts for the second half of 2026: the real-world performance and pricing of the roughly 3 trillion-parameter model, user retention and paid conversion for the upcoming Hailuo product generation, further improvement in inference gross margins, and progress on overseas compute infrastructure and regulatory compliance.
Minimax's ARR trajectory — from roughly $100 million to a $1 billion target within 12 months — places it among the fastest-growing AI application companies globally. The next catalyst for investors is the launch of the next-generation model and Hailuo product, which will test whether the company's technology roadmap can sustain the growth rate implied by its annual target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
