Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan raises its West Europe market share forecast for Chinese OEMs.
- New forecast is 20% by 2028, up from 10-15% by 2030.
- BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor are named as best positioned to benefit.
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JPMorgan Sees China EVs Seizing 20% of Europe Market by 2028
JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its forecast for Chinese automakers' market share in Western Europe to 20% by 2028, a significant acceleration from its previous estimate.
The bank’s analysts said China's auto exports are "structural in nature and will increasingly dominate global investor narratives."
The new 2028 forecast is a substantial upgrade from the previous projection of 10-15% market share by 2030. JPMorgan expects overseas markets to account for 30-60% of revenue for some Chinese automakers by 2026, even while volume contribution may only represent 15-30%, reflecting higher average selling prices abroad.
BYD Co., Geely Automobile Holdings, and Leapmotor are seen as the best-positioned companies to capitalize on the trend. The upgraded forecast intensifies the competitive pressure on European incumbents like BMW, which recently noted weaker BEV sales in other key markets.
The bank reiterated its preference for BYD, Geely, Leapmotor, XPeng, and Nio. It maintained a cautious view on SAIC Motor, GAC Group, Brilliance China Automotive, and Li Auto.
According to the report, automakers with larger overseas production capacity are expected to benefit the most from the structural export shift. Leapmotor's expansion through its cooperation with Stellantis was highlighted as a key advantage.
The forecast suggests investors should anticipate a significant and structural revenue shift toward Chinese EV makers with strong European strategies. Market participants will now closely watch European sales data for BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor in the second half of the year to validate the bank's accelerated timeline.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Research: JPMorgan states BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor are set to benefit from rising overseas revenue contribution[2] Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft Q1 Earnings Call Highlights[3] JPM: BYD COMPANY (01211.HK), GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) and LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) to Benefit from Rising Overseas Revenue Contribution - AASTOCKS.com[4] Sanhua Intelligent Controls: Auto parts back in the black; how long until the robot boom? - Longbridge
