CICC Projects 50.9% Upside After Strong 2025 Results
Investment bank CICC maintained its "Outperform" rating for Jinxin Fertility (01951), issuing a price target of HK$3.50 that implies a 50.9% upside from its current price. The endorsement comes after the company reported solid 2025 full-year results, with revenue reaching 2.649 billion yuan and adjusted net profit hitting 2.09 billion yuan, meeting the bank's expectations. The second half of 2025 showed a particularly strong operational rebound, with adjusted net profit growing 54.9% compared to the first half. This recovery was partly fueled by an increased uptake of higher-margin services, such as third-generation IVF (PGT) treatments in its Chengdu facility, where cycles grew 72.8% year-over-year.
Shenzhen Capacity Quadruples as US Cycles Grow 38%
Jinxin's growth outlook is supported by significant capacity expansion and strong performance in key markets. The commissioning of a new building for its Shenzhen Zhongshan hospital has increased its cycle capacity by approximately four times, directly contributing to an 18% year-over-year increase in treatment cycles during January and February 2026. In the United States, the company's HRC Fertility business experienced a 38% growth in cycles over the same period, propelled by favorable changes in a California commercial insurance law. The company plans to expand its US physician network to 40 specialists to capitalize on this momentum.
Company Pledges 50%-80% of EBITDA to Shareholder Returns
Signaling confidence in its financial stability, Jinxin has approved a shareholder return plan for 2026-2028, committing to distribute between 50% and 80% of its adjusted EBITDA through dividends and share buybacks. For 2026 alone, the company intends to implement a 300 million yuan share buyback and issue a 100 million yuan dividend. This initiative is backed by robust cash flow, which reached 589 million yuan in 2025, and a strategic decision to reduce capital expenditures to below 50 million yuan in 2026. This disciplined capital management is expected to substantially increase the company's free cash flow.
