A fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah-backed Lebanon has taken effect, pausing a brutal seven-week conflict that has killed over 2,100 people and displaced more than a million, as the US pushes for a historic but precarious peace deal.
A US-brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect Thursday, halting a conflict that has devastated southern Lebanon and drawn in regional powers. The truce, announced by President Donald Trump, aims to pave the way for the first direct peace talks between the two nations in over 40 years, though deep-seated divisions over the role of Hezbollah and border security threaten to derail the initiative before it begins.
"We have the opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address, confirming the deal. However, he stressed that Israeli forces would not withdraw from a 10-kilometer "security zone" inside Lebanon, a key sticking point for both Lebanon and Hezbollah.
The conflict has exacted a heavy toll, with Lebanon's health ministry reporting at least 2,196 people killed and an estimated 37,000 homes destroyed. In Israel, Hezbollah rocket fire has killed two civilians, with 13 soldiers killed in combat. The ceasefire announcement offered a brief respite to markets, with crude oil prices easing slightly on hopes of reduced geopolitical risk in the Middle East, a region responsible for over 20% of global oil trade.
The success of the ceasefire and any subsequent peace talks hinges on resolving the intractable issue of Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group that the US designates as a terrorist organization. While the Lebanese government has officially banned the group's military activities, it lacks the power to disarm a force seen by many as more formidable than the national army. The next 10 days will test whether US-led diplomacy can succeed where previous efforts have failed, or if the region will slide back into a wider conflict.
The temporary truce, which began at 5 p.m. EST, is a critical component of a broader US strategy that includes parallel peace negotiations with Iran. Tehran has insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon, where its proxy Hezbollah has been fighting Israel, is a precondition for further talks. Iran’s foreign ministry welcomed the pause but reiterated its demand for a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.
This demand is in direct opposition to Israel's stated position. Netanyahu has been adamant that Israeli troops will remain to block any potential "danger of invasion" and to continue pressure on Hezbollah. "We are there, and we are not leaving," he stated, making it clear that the dismantling of Hezbollah would be a fundamental Israeli demand in any negotiations.
Hezbollah, for its part, responded with caution, urging displaced Lebanese civilians to delay their return home and warning that a ceasefire must include "no freedom of movement for Israeli forces." A senior source from the group told Al Jazeera that as long as Israeli occupation continues, "Lebanon and its people have the right to resist by all means."
This sets the stage for a high-stakes diplomatic gambit by the Trump administration. President Trump announced he would invite Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House for what he called "the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983." However, Lebanese officials have reportedly been cool on the prospect of a direct meeting with Netanyahu, highlighting the immense internal political pressures.
The last attempt at a comprehensive peace agreement in 1983 collapsed due to opposition from factions within Lebanon, including Hezbollah. A more recent US-backed deal in November 2024, which was supposed to lead to Hezbollah's demilitarization, also failed to achieve its objectives, with near-daily cross-border strikes continuing. Analysts are watching to see if the weakened position of Iran and mounting internal criticism of Hezbollah within Lebanon could create a different outcome this time.
"The pathway towards dismantling Hezbollah goes through the Israeli military or a civil war in Lebanon,” said Avner Golov, a former Israeli national-security official, now a vice president at MIND Israel, an advisory group. This highlights the perilous internal dynamics the Lebanese government must navigate.
For now, a tense quiet has fallen over the border. In the hours leading up to the ceasefire, both sides continued to exchange fire. The Israeli military reported striking over 380 Hezbollah targets in the final 24 hours, while Israeli strikes killed dozens in southern Lebanese towns. The fragile calm brings immediate relief but leaves the fundamental drivers of the conflict unresolved, with the potential for a rapid and violent escalation if negotiations falter.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
