Iran to track Hormuz ships, 20% of oil trade at stake

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it will identify, track and monitor every foreign vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of global oil consumption, escalating the crude risk premium.

"Iran was working with Oman on mechanisms for monitoring security, protecting the environment and combating crime at sea," Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said, adding that fees would be levied for maritime services provided to ships.

The declaration lands as oil trades just above $75 a barrel and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, in place since April, deepens the strain on Tehran's economy. The strait narrows to about 39 kilometers at its most constricted point, where Iran and Oman each claim the maximum 12 nautical miles of territorial waters allowed under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, leaving no international waters. That geography gives Tehran leverage over a chokepoint that moved roughly 20 million barrels of crude and refined products daily before the conflict.

The waterway carried a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas before the war, and its effective closure since February has kept energy markets on edge. Any sustained disruption would push crude higher and ripple through shipping, insurance and refining costs, with talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the strait still contingent on Washington lifting its blockade.

A Deal in the Balance

Iran's foreign ministry said this month that negotiations with Oman had reached their "final" stages, with both sides nearing agreement on coordinates for a new shipping route. The emerging plan calls for ships to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman, two regional officials told the Associated Press.

Tehran has stressed it will not fully reopen the waterway until the US "corrects its behaviour," which includes lifting the naval blockade, halting military actions and paying war damages. The Trump administration has previously ruled out any deal that would give Iran control over the strait, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait." Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed progress in the talks "but not finality yet."

The monitoring pledge may be part of that negotiation rather than a break with it. Iran's demand for transit fees, first floated by the foreign ministry, would give Tehran a financial stake in keeping the waterway open — a structure that could satisfy both sides if Washington accepts Iranian oversight of inbound traffic.

What a Closure Would Cost

The last time the strait faced a sustained threat, in 2019 after attacks on tankers, Brent spiked about 15 percent within weeks before retreating as supply proved resilient. This time the stakes are higher: the war that began Feb. 28 has already shut the waterway, and a ceasefire reached in June collapsed weeks later over disputes about control of the strait.

Iran has continued intermittent strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, while Yemen's Houthis, aligned with Tehran, declared a separate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia last month. For energy markets, the question is whether the monitoring pledge is a negotiating lever or a prelude to tighter enforcement — a distinction that will determine whether the risk premium in crude holds or fades. Shipping rates and war-risk insurance premiums, already elevated across the Gulf, would climb further if Iran moves from surveillance to interdiction, while tanker owners and defense contractors would be the main beneficiaries of a prolonged standoff.

Beyond crude, a prolonged closure would hit Asian refiners hardest given their reliance on Gulf supply, and lift freight rates for tankers that do run the strait. European gas prices, already sensitive to Middle East supply, would face renewed upward pressure, while gold would draw safe-haven flows.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.