Iran threats, Bolton prosecution expose 2 US security gaps

Iran's open threats to assassinate President Donald Trump have exposed a widening gap in how the US protects current and former officials from Tehran's retaliation campaign.

Iran has placed President Donald Trump on a kill list and erected billboards in central Tehran depicting him dead, yet the administration has pulled security details from former officials Tehran also targets — including John Bolton, who faces a potential prison term that could make him vulnerable to assassination while in custody.

"Iran views these individuals as legitimate targets for Soleimani's death, and the threat hasn't diminished with time," said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. "The US government needs to treat the risk to all of them as continuous, not episodic."

The Justice Department is seeking up to five years in prison for Bolton after he pleaded guilty to mishandling classified documents, with sentencing set for Oct. 28. The former national security adviser faces a $2.25 million fine as part of the plea deal. Iran previously hacked Bolton's personal AOL account after he left office in what he described as an attempt to obtain his calendar for a potential assassination plot, according to people familiar with the matter.

The disconnect — Trump receives full Secret Service protection while Bolton, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former Iran envoy Brian Hook have had their security details revoked — creates a vulnerability that Tehran could exploit, particularly if Bolton is incarcerated in a federal prison where security is harder to control. Iran has long sought to kill American officials and anti-regime exiles, including Brooklyn-based Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad, according to a federal case in which two men were convicted in a foiled plot.

The Threat Landscape

Iran's hostility toward Trump dates to the 2020 US drone strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Tehran has repeatedly vowed revenge, and US intelligence agencies have warned for years that Iran has pursued plots targeting Trump and former administration officials. A large billboard in Tehran's Islamic Revolution Square features the English phrase "We Kill Trump" alongside imagery of the president in a coffin.

The threat extends beyond Trump. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser John Bolton have both been identified by US authorities as targets of Iranian assassination plots. The Justice Department previously charged individuals linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in connection with an alleged plan to assassinate Bolton, with prosecutors saying the plot involved hundreds of thousands of dollars.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed at a Pentagon briefing that American forces had carried out a targeted operation against a senior figure within an Iranian unit tasked with orchestrating assassination attempts against Trump and other US officials, describing the individual as a "key operative" involved in planning external attacks.

The Bolton Case

Bolton pleaded guilty last month to avoid the threat of additional charges against him or his family. The plea deal stipulates a $2.25 million fine, which critics say is an effort to strip Bolton of income from his 2020 book critical of Trump. But the Justice Department has insisted on seeking a prison term of up to five years — a penalty far beyond what other officials have received for similar or greater classification offenses. John Deutch, David Petraeus, and Sandy Berger never served jail time for comparable violations.

Federal Judge Theodore Chuang will sentence Bolton on Oct. 28. A prison term of any length runs the risk of assassination, as it would take little for Iranian operatives to bribe an inmate or threaten relatives of a guard to have Bolton killed while in custody, security experts have warned.

The last time Iran directly targeted a former US official at this level was in 2022, when the Justice Department foiled a plot to kill Bolton at his Washington-area home. That case resulted in charges against a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underscoring the persistence of the threat.

For markets, the escalating rhetoric has reinforced safe-haven demand. Gold has rallied as geopolitical risk premiums widen, while defense sector stocks have gained on expectations of increased US military engagement with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21 percent of global oil trade passes, remains a flashpoint that could disrupt crude supplies if tensions escalate further.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.