Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have destroyed 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas export capacity, dealing a direct blow to European energy security just months before winter heating demand peaks.
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Iran strikes destroy 17% of Qatar LNG capacity, threatening Europe's winter gas
Iranian strikes on Qatar's LNG infrastructure have eliminated 17% of the emirate's export capacity, tightening a global gas market already starved of supply after four months of near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"The loss of Qatari supply removes the last flexible swing producer that could have filled European storage ahead of winter," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London's School of Security Studies. He described the broader Iranian strategy as "another nuclear option" after Hormuz — one Tehran would deploy only if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps concluded that a return to all-out war had become unavoidable.
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of global LNG flows, with Qatar alone exporting roughly 9.3 billion cubic feet per day through the waterway in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Before the conflict began in late February, an average of 138 ships crossed the strait each day; that number has since fallen to a handful, the Joint Maritime Information Center estimates. Insurance premiums for Hormuz transit have surged to as much as 8% of a vessel's value from 0.25% before the war, while shipping lines including CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have added conflict surcharges of $1,500 to $2,000 per twenty-foot equivalent unit.
The supply shock comes as Europe enters the critical storage-filling season ahead of winter, when gas demand typically triples. With Russian pipeline flows already severed and global LNG markets tight, the loss of Qatari barrels removes the most viable alternative supply source. European benchmark gas prices have already risen sharply, and further gains threaten to push inflation higher just as the European Central Bank navigates the final stages of its tightening cycle.
Iran widens the battlefield to the Red Sea
Tehran is simultaneously signaling it could use Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk. "If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance," Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of Ansarullah, the Houthi resistance movement, said Monday, according to Iran's Press TV. "Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock."
The threat compounds an already severe supply disruption. Seaborne crude exports from Gulf states excluding Iran fell by roughly half between February and March, according to shipping data. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which can carry up to 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, saw its throughput cut by an estimated 700,000 barrels a day in April after Iranian strikes. The UAE's Habshan-to-Fujairah alternative, with a daily capacity of at least 1.5 million barrels, has also faced drone attacks disrupting loading.
The economic toll extends well beyond oil and gas. About 30% of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz, and the World Bank's fertilizer price index has risen more than 12% in the first quarter of 2026 to its highest level since October 2022. The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the resulting scarcity of urea and other nitrogen products will reduce yields through the 2026-2027 growing season, hitting import-dependent countries in Africa and Asia the hardest.
For Iran, the strait is both its strongest card and its greatest liability. The country's oil exports collapsed by more than 90% in May as US naval enforcement squeezed its shadow fleet, according to tanker tracking data. A 60-day US Treasury waiver issued June 22 that permitted Iran to sell oil at full market rates was renounced after the latest attacks. Tehran has insisted on asserting joint authority over the strait and floated a system of transit fees — a demand Washington has rejected as incompatible with the Law of the Sea.
The global economy is absorbing the largest oil supply shock in modern market history, with the International Energy Agency estimating that the disruption has already slowed global growth to an expected 2.8% in 2026 from 3.4% last year. China, which takes about 40% of its crude imports through Hormuz and buys more than 80% of Iran's oil exports, has been the most exposed bystander. Japan, which sources 70% of its Middle Eastern crude via the strait, has already tapped strategic reserves.
"Both a victorious Iran and a defeated Iran carry consequences for the region," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. "Many Gulf states may consider the costs of the latter to be more acceptable if they lead to a more stable regional security environment."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Europe's Scramble for Gas Ahead of Winter Gets Harder[2] Iran Piles on Pressure and Targets Tanker off Omani LNG Terminal - The Maritime Executive[3] Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much in the Iran war[4] After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point[5] The Strait of Hormuz is now at the centre of Iranian and US calculus
