Iran ships 18M barrels of oil in 5 days after Hormuz deal

Iran has exported about 18 million barrels of crude oil over the past five days, signaling the swift unwinding of the US blockade after a framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran exported roughly 18 million barrels of crude oil in the five days through June 19, ship-tracking data show, as the US blockade collapsed following a framework agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"The volume of crude leaving Iranian ports in the past week is unprecedented since before the blockade," said Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, which monitors global oil shipments via satellite imagery and AIS data. "We are seeing a coordinated release of stored cargoes."

At least four tankers carrying Iranian crude have crossed the US blockade line since June 17, including the VLCCs Hero II and Diona, each loaded with 2 million barrels, and the Suezmax Sonia I carrying 1 million barrels, according to Kpler and Vortexa data. The surge brings Iran's five-day export total to roughly 18 million barrels valued at about $1.44 billion, TankerTrackers data show — a dramatic reversal from May, when the blockade cut Iranian crude exports to 260,000 barrels per day, the lowest in six years and less than a fifth of the 2025 average of 1.67 million bpd.

The resumption of Iranian exports threatens to add significant supply to an already well-supplied global market. Brent crude has already fallen to three-month lows on expectations of more Middle East oil, and a sustained recovery in Gulf exports could push prices lower. Under the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Washington will allow Tehran to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, while Iran has committed to restoring Hormuz traffic to pre-conflict levels within 30 days.

Blockade Unravels as Tankers Test Waters

The US blockade, imposed April 13 after Iran halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, had effectively strangled Iranian exports. United Against a Nuclear Iran reported that Tehran exported just 2.01 million barrels in all of May, down from 29.7 million barrels in April — a 93 percent collapse. More than 100 tankers carrying crude and refined products remained stranded in the region during the conflict, while Gulf producers curtailed output as export routes became constrained.

The first Saudi-owned tankers to transit the strait since the conflict began were also observed this week, according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data, alongside Qatari LNG cargoes resuming passage through the waterway. The broadening of traffic beyond Iranian-linked vessels suggests the reopening is gaining genuine momentum.

Industry Cautious Despite Flow Resumption

Despite the surge in vessel movements, shipping companies and industry groups remain cautious. The Joint Maritime Information Centre advised on June 15 that the blockade remained in effect pending execution of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement scheduled for June 19.

"The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers," Lloyd's Market Association said in a statement, warning that supply chains remain disrupted and a return to normal shipping operations could take months. Industry groups including Intertanko and Bimco also said additional clarity is needed before vessel traffic returns to pre-war levels.

The last time a comparable geopolitical disruption hit the Strait of Hormuz — during the 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent tensions — shipping traffic normalized within roughly six weeks after security assurances were issued, though insurance premiums remained elevated for months.

Market Implications

The rapid resumption of Iranian exports adds a significant bearish factor to oil markets already grappling with lackluster demand from China, Iran's biggest buyer, where poor domestic margins have curbed appetite. WTI crude and Brent crude have both slid to three-month lows as traders price in the additional supply.

If Iran sustains exports at the current pace of roughly 3.6 million barrels per day, it would more than double the country's pre-blockade average and add the equivalent of about 3.5 percent of global supply to a market already watching for OPEC+ production decisions. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for early July.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.