Iran rejects foreign interference in Hormuz as 15M barrels stay blocked

Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran will not accept foreign interference in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating talks that could restore flows of 15 million barrels of crude a day through the waterway.

"Iran is seeking to convert the leverage it gained during the war into a durable political and institutional role in governing one of the world's most strategically important waterways," said Trita Parsi, vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas before the war began in February. Iranian attacks on shipping have effectively shut the waterway, and for every day without an agreement, roughly 15 million barrels of crude fail to reach world markets. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said Tuesday that even if the strait reopened today, it could take up to 18 months to replenish depleted inventories.

The emerging framework would have vessels enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled channel and exit through a route near Oman, with service fees split equally between the two countries. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly rejected any arrangement that gives Iran control over an international waterway, calling it a "very dangerous precedent." President Donald Trump said Monday that any deal is Tehran's "last chance" to avoid further military escalation.

Gharibabadi's statement, carried by IRNA, also clarified that the Iran-Oman agreement does not constitute implementation of Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the framework signed in June that collapsed within a month. That distinction matters because it shows Tehran views the current talks as a new framework, not a continuation of the June memorandum. The June agreement committed Iran to using its "best efforts" to ensure safe commercial passage for 60 days while leaving key provisions deliberately vague. The Lawfare blog noted that "given the well-known disagreement between Iran and most of the world over what international law requires in the Strait of Hormuz, this formulation does little more than kick the can down the road."

The leverage question

The core dispute centers on whether Iran retains any control over the waterway. Iranian officials say the negotiations should "establish Iranian arrangements because security, de-mining, and maritime services are handled by Iran," according to Saeed Ajorlu, a member of Iran's negotiating committee. Tehran's goal "is to set temporary arrangements" between one and three months "where Iran is dominant," Ajorlu told Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.

Washington rejects that premise. Rubio said last month that "if we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don't pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent." Trump has been equally blunt: "I'm not going to let them charge. Anybody's going to charge, we'll charge."

A senior Gulf official familiar with the talks suggested there is about a 50:50 chance of a deal by Friday, but noted the Iranian delegation does not include the voice of the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which would have to sign off on the details.

Market stakes

The oil market is watching closely. The waterway's closure has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices globally, and the drawdown of crude inventories has become a growing concern. Nasser's warning about an 18-month replenishment timeline highlights the structural damage already done.

Israeli security expert Danny Citrinowicz said restoring the strait to its pre-crisis status "would have required either regime change in Iran or a sustained military effort to impose control over the waterway. Neither option was politically or strategically acceptable to Washington, given the enormous costs and long-term commitments they would require."

Any deal also appears contingent on the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials said the strait would remain closed, despite any agreement, until the blockade is lifted and both countries return to the 14-point plan laid out in the Islamabad memorandum.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.