Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East on Tuesday, ending a four-day pause in hostilities. The salvo, which US Central Command said was fully intercepted, came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House. Oil markets face renewed upside risk as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded with shipping down more than 70 percent from pre-war levels.
Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East on Tuesday, shattering a four-day pause in hostilities and threatening to reignite a conflict that has already cost Washington $37.5 billion and killed 18 US service members.
"The regime should believe the president when he says they're locked and loaded," Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, said Sunday on CBS News' Face the Nation, as additional military assets moved into the region.
US Central Command said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the missiles at 5:45 p.m. ET from Iranian territory in what it described as an "attempted surprise attack." All were successfully intercepted, with forces remaining "at a high state of readiness." The attack came hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House for the first time since the war began Feb. 28. Trump warned Monday that if diplomacy fails, "we go back to doing what we were doing."
The question now is whether the missile salvo was a one-off show of defiance or the start of a renewed campaign. Oil markets, which had rallied Monday after Brent crude dropped 6.8 percent to $85.49 a barrel on the pause, face renewed upside risk. The Strait of Hormuz — through which about 21 percent of global oil supply transits — remains effectively blockaded, with only 29 verified crossings recorded from July 24 to 26, down from roughly 100 per day before the war. US Central Command said 18 ships have been stopped from entering or exiting Iranian ports, with more than 20 US warships enforcing the blockade.
The Diplomatic Window Narrows
The missile launch coincided with a critical diplomatic moment. Trump met Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday in what a senior Israeli source described as an "extremely positive" meeting focused on Iran. The president downplayed the significance of Iran's alleged nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain, telling Fox News "it's not a big problem" and that the US would "take it out very easily" if no deal is reached.
Iran, meanwhile, has denied any direct negotiations with Washington. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran "has not submitted any request to negotiate with America during the past 15 days," adding that the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to its pre-war state." Talks with Oman on a joint mechanism to manage shipping traffic through the strait continue, with discussions over future fees and security arrangements.
Market Fallout and Readiness Concerns
The escalation comes as reports emerged that concerns over dwindling munitions stockpiles were restraining plans for further US strikes. The New York Times reported that plans to escalate the campaign had been shelved in part because of shrinking supplies of Patriot interceptors and other precision-guided weapons. Vice President JD Vance and top US General Dan Caine both raised concerns about further escalation at a White House meeting Friday, according to CNN.
The last time the US faced a comparable missile salvo from Iran was in early July, when a ceasefire agreed to in mid-June collapsed after exchanges of fire over the Strait of Hormuz. That round of fighting lasted 13 consecutive nights of US strikes before the current pause took hold Friday. Trump has not decided whether to authorize a return to all-out operations, telling reporters Friday that Iran faced a choice between a deal and strikes at a "much higher level."
Shipping costs have already surged across three critical routes — the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea — as the Iran and Ukraine wars simultaneously disrupt global trade. Spot rates for very large crude carriers and suezmax vessels have risen sharply, with insurance premiums climbing and alternative routes creating bottlenecks, according to Lloyd's List.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
