IonQ Outperforms With Strong Q4 and $954M Market Share Projection
IonQ delivered an exceptionally strong fourth quarter with revenue growth driven by significant commercial progress. The company secured the sale of a fifth-generation Tempo computer to a South Korean research center and extended its long-term partnership with Switzerland’s QuantumBasel, which included a system purchase. Reflecting this performance, Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton reiterated a Buy rating on IonQ shares, though he lowered the price target to $65 from $80, citing multiple compression across the quantum industry.
The long-term outlook from some analysts is particularly bullish. Cantor analyst Troy Jensen, who rates the stock at Overweight with a $40 price target, projects IonQ can capture 30% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035. Using a 10% discount rate, he calculates this potential market share has a present value of $954 million, underscoring the significant growth Wall Street anticipates.
Rigetti Resolves 3-Month System Delay, Reaffirming Technical Roadmap
While competitor Rigetti Computing reported fourth-quarter results that were “a bit light,” the company demonstrated crucial resilience by resolving a key technical issue. A problem with its tunable couplers had delayed the delivery of its Cepheus-1-108Q system, originally planned for the end of 2025.
Management confirmed the issue is fixed, and the system is now on track for delivery by the end of March 2026, a delay of roughly three months. This resolution is vital as it validates the company's modular quantum compute architecture, easing the path for scaling to larger machines. Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake reiterated a Buy rating and a $40 price target on Rigetti, nodding to the company’s “good machine sales momentum.”
Wall Street Bets on Growth Despite Near-Term Unprofitability
The positive analyst sentiment comes even as quantum computing firms consistently state in securities filings that they have yet to turn a profit and may never do so. However, Wall Street appears focused on the long-term potential, which BofA Securities has called “the next fire moment.” This optimism extends beyond the top performers; even D-Wave Quantum, which had an "uneventful" quarter with results that missed forecasts, maintained a Buy rating and a $43 price target from Rosenblatt.
Analysts believe the sector is building momentum toward wider commercialization. “2026 is setting up to be an exciting year for the industry and we would anticipate more SPACs, mergers and acquisitions,” wrote Cantor’s Jensen in a client note, signaling expectations for continued investment and consolidation in the nascent market.
