Intel to Report Q1 Earnings Amid Turnaround Fueled by 3 New AI Deals

Intel Corp. is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23, where new AI partnerships with Google and Elon Musk’s Terafab project will test investor conviction in its ambitious turnaround strategy. Wall Street is watching whether these high-profile deals can offset persistent losses in its foundry business and mounting pressure from rivals AMD and Nvidia, with consensus estimates projecting revenue of approximately $12.4 billion and earnings per share near zero.

"Rising demand for CPUs in AI data centers gives the company a steadier revenue lifeline that's less dependent on the consumer PC cycle," Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer, said.

The report follows a volatile quarter where Intel’s stock (NASDAQ: INTC) surged to a 26-year high near $70.33 before pulling back. The company guided for Q1 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion with non-GAAP EPS around $0.00. The focus will be on the data center and AI segment, which is expected to grow 6.8% to $4.41 billion, and the manufacturing yields of its critical 18A process node, slated for high-volume production later in 2026.

For investors, the quarter is a referendum on CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s strategy to reclaim technology leadership. Success in the foundry business and traction from AI deals could justify the stock's recent rally from a low of nearly $18 in early 2025, while any shortfall risks ceding further ground to competitors like TSMC, whose foundry profits are soaring, and AMD, which some analysts believe could surpass Intel in revenue by 2027.

New AI Deals Bolster Strategy

Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took the helm in late 2025, Intel has pursued an aggressive recovery plan centered on expanding its foundry services and securing a foothold in the booming AI infrastructure market. The strategy has shown signs of progress through a series of major partnerships announced in April.

The company deepened its collaboration with Google to supply Xeon CPUs and custom Infrastructure Processing Units (IPUs) to optimize AI workloads. It also joined Elon Musk's high-profile Terafab project, a consortium including Tesla and xAI, to provide advanced packaging and design expertise for massive AI computing build-outs. These deals, along with expanded work with partners like SambaNova, have helped reframe Intel as a key player in the broader AI ecosystem, not just a legacy PC chip vendor.

Foundry Remains the Key Challenge

Despite the AI momentum, the financial health of Intel Foundry remains the core challenge. The division continues to post operating losses, and investors are looking for a clear path to profitability. The upcoming earnings call will be scrutinized for updates on the Intel 18A process node, which the company says is on track for high-volume manufacturing in 2026 with external customers already committed.

"For Intel to make an outsized bid here, their 18A yield improvement has to be... better than market expectations," said Ryuta Makino, an analyst at Intel investor Gabelli Funds.

The company has made financial moves to shore up its position, including a $14.2 billion deal to repurchase the 49% stake in its Fab 34 joint venture in Ireland. Yet it faces formidable competition from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which continues to dominate the foundry market with record profits and overwhelming demand for its advanced chips.

The Competitive Landscape

The earnings report comes as Intel's rivals are firing on all cylinders. AMD has seen its data center revenue soar, and its next-generation Instinct MI450 accelerators have secured a major order from AI firm Anthropic. Meanwhile, TSMC, which manufactures chips for both AMD and Nvidia, reported its net income exploded by 65.2% in the first quarter, with its most advanced nodes completely sold out through the end of 2026.

Intel's stock has more than tripled from its 2025 lows at its peak, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Analyst price targets have followed, with firms like Stifel and Cantor Fitzgerald raising their targets to $65. However, with shares pulling back from their highs ahead of the report, the results on Thursday will be a critical test of whether the market's optimism has outpaced the fundamental reality of one of the most ambitious turnarounds in semiconductor history.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.