Macau March GGR Set for 14% Growth on Resilient Demand
Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP15.6 billion in the first 22 days of March, according to a report from HSBC Global Investment Research. The firm projects the full month's revenue will land between MOP21.8 billion and MOP22.35 billion, marking an 11% to 14% year-over-year increase. This performance keeps the sector on track for 13-14% GGR growth for the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating sustained momentum in player demand.
The strength in revenue is driven by the high-value premium mass segment. A separate Citigroup survey from March revealed a 17% year-over-year jump in the average wager per premium player to HKD20,689. Analysts also identified 25 "whales"—players betting HKD100,000 or more—up from 20 in the same period last year. Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China captured the largest shares of this observed premium activity, with 32% and 21% respectively.
Morgan Stanley Flags 2% EBITDA Growth, Warns on Profitability
While top-line revenue appears strong, Morgan Stanley issued a cautious note on profitability, downgrading its view on the Macau gaming sector from "attractive" to "in-line." The bank forecasts that while Macau's GGR will grow around 6% in 2026—outpacing both Las Vegas and Singapore—earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will only increase by about 2%.
This disconnect stems from structural cost pressures. Morgan Stanley points to elevated reinvestment rates to attract premium mass players, high promotional spending, and ongoing non-gaming expenses as key factors that will weigh on margins. The bank warns of potential "negative earnings revisions" as slowing GGR growth in the second half of the year combines with these persistent costs.
HSBC Maintains 'Buy' Ratings on Key Casino Operators
Despite broader concerns about profitability, HSBC reiterated its 'Buy' ratings on several key operators, signaling confidence in the top-line revenue momentum. The firm maintained its positive stance on SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK), GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), and MGM CHINA (02282.HK), citing resilient GGR performance.
HSBC set target prices of HKD22.5 for Sands China, HKD49 for Galaxy Entertainment, and HKD17 for MGM China. This outlook suggests the bank believes the strong revenue trend, driven by a healthy premium mass market, provides a compelling investment case that outweighs the immediate margin pressures highlighted by other analysts.
