Key Takeaways:
The House passed a resolution Wednesday restricting President Donald Trump's authority to wage war against Iran, as the three-month conflict has already cost an estimated $100 billion and drawn growing bipartisan unease on Capitol Hill.
The House voted on a War Powers Act resolution that requires the president to withdraw US forces from hostilities within 60 days unless Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force. The measure represents the most significant legislative check on executive war powers since the conflict began in late February, when the administration launched military strikes against Iran without prior congressional approval.
"Congress has a constitutional responsibility to authorize the use of military force, and this resolution reasserts that authority," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), who had previously accused Republicans of lacking the courage to hold a vote. Two weeks ago, House GOP leadership pulled a similar resolution after Republicans dragged out a vote on a separate piece of legislation, prompting heckles from Democrats and a failed 50-47 procedural vote in the Senate.
Three Republicans broke with party leadership during the last attempt — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Penn.), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — though Massie subsequently lost his primary to Ed Gallrein last month after the White House engaged in a full-court press against him. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) opposed the earlier resolution, forcing a deadlock. This time, Democrats expect fuller attendance: Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.) and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), both absent during the previous vote, are expected to return. Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.), who has missed nearly 90 days of work citing undisclosed health complications, won his primary Tuesday after Trump endorsed him but remains absent.
The $100 billion price tag and a closed strait
The vote comes as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared the Iran war "over" during a budget hearing Tuesday — a statement contradicted by continued US military strikes in the region and the administration's own negotiating timeline. Rubio told lawmakers that reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 21 percent of global seaborne crude, is the "predicate" for phase two of negotiations, which could take up to 90 days and would seek severe limits on Iran's uranium enrichment. He clarified that sanctions would not be removed in exchange for reopening the strait.
A Moody's estimate cited during the hearing pegged the war's total cost at roughly $100 billion, combining increased oil prices and military spending. The last time the US engaged in a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict without a formal congressional authorization — the 2011 Libya intervention — the Obama administration faced similar legal challenges but ultimately avoided a binding War Powers vote. This resolution, if enforced, would mark a sharper constraint.
What comes next
The resolution's path to enactment remains uncertain. While the House is expected to pass the measure, it would need to clear a Senate where Republicans hold a narrow majority. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) voted to allow the previous resolution to proceed, and Trump's decision to endorse Cassidy's primary challenger could push additional Republicans toward supporting the measure. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who told The Independent in March she was "deeply concerned about the Washington war machine," signaled she might support the resolution but said last month she wanted to "give the president room to negotiate" amid a ceasefire.
For markets, the resolution reduces the immediate likelihood of a broader US-Iran military escalation, which could ease geopolitical risk premiums embedded in crude oil prices and safe-haven assets. However, it introduces a new layer of political friction between Congress and the executive branch at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude continues to price in a supply disruption premium, and the administration has offered no clear exit timeline. The 90-day negotiation window Rubio outlined means the conflict's economic toll — and the political battle over its authorization — is far from over.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
