Hormuz shipping faces months of tension after 1-day closure

Shipping traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted on April 18, even after its official reopening, keeping the global oil supply situation “tense,” according to analysis from Belgian firm Kpler.

"Despite the market’s ‘cautiously optimistic’ reaction to the reopening news, the related supply situation remains ‘tense’," Kpler said in a report published by Iran's Tasnim News Agency. The firm believes a full restoration of trade and confidence will require several months.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint, with approximately 21 million barrels per day, or about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, passing through it. The restrictions to approved channels, which continued through the night of April 17, suggest that underlying geopolitical risks have not abated.

The persistent restrictions signal a heightened risk environment for global energy markets. This could lead to a sustained increase in shipping insurance premiums and freight costs, directly impacting the landed price of crude oil and potentially fueling global inflation if the situation deteriorates.

A Chokepoint Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz connects Persian Gulf producers to the rest of the world. Any disruption, even minor, has an outsized psychological and financial impact on the market. The current "approved channel" limitation acts as a cap on normalised flow, creating backlogs and uncertainty for shippers who must now navigate a more complex and potentially costlier clearance process.

Long Road to Recovery

Kpler's projection that a return to normalcy could take months highlights the deep-seated nature of the current geopolitical tensions. Shippers and insurers will likely demand a significant period of stability before risk premiums are lowered. This extended "wait-and-see" period could introduce a new floor for crude oil prices, affecting transportation and industrial sectors that depend on stable energy inputs.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.