Hong Kong's $2.9 trillion wealth shift reshapes stock and property markets

Hong Kong's M2 money supply growth has become increasingly correlated with southbound capital flows via Stock Connect since the pandemic, marking a departure from the city's historical reliance on foreign exchange reserves as its primary liquidity anchor, according to Fu Peng, a macro strategist.

The ratio of Hong Kong's M2 to its foreign exchange reserves has surged well above levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, Fu said in a video analysis published May 23. The metric has climbed sharply over the past two years, reflecting a fundamental shift in how liquidity flows through the city's financial system. Where Hong Kong once depended on reserve-backed港元 issuance, the data now points to mainland capital channeled through Stock Connect as the dominant driver of money supply expansion.

"The data shows that southbound buying and Hong Kong dollar M2 growth are running in near-perfect lockstep," Fu said. "This is a different liquidity regime than anything we saw pre-COVID."

The shift comes as Hong Kong reclaims its status as the world's largest cross-border wealth hub. Offshore assets booked in the city rose 10.7% to $2.9 trillion in 2025, overtaking Switzerland, according to Boston Consulting Group's 2026 Global Wealth Report. BCG forecasts the gap between Hong Kong and Switzerland will widen to nearly $600 billion by 2030, fueled by China's manufacturing dominance and a revival in Hong Kong's IPO market.

Population Inflow Fuels Property Demand

The liquidity transformation is unfolding alongside a demographic shift. Hong Kong's single-family offices grew 25% from 2023 to 3,384 by the end of last year, a government-commissioned Deloitte survey showed. Each manages at least $10 million, with more than 1,000 overseeing $100 million or more.

The influx of high-net-worth individuals and professionals under enhanced talent admission schemes is creating a new demand base for Hong Kong's property market, Fu said. The rental yield model — a key valuation metric for Hong Kong real estate — is being repriced as population inflows collide with constrained housing supply.

"Population and capital are the dual variables," Fu said. "When both move in the same direction, the impact on asset prices is compounding."

Regulatory Tightening Adds Complexity

The structural shift is not without friction. Foreign and Chinese banks in Hong Kong are moving quickly to comply with a Beijing-led crackdown on cross-border investment, Reuters reported May 27. HSBC has asked mainland clients seeking to open investment accounts to sign declarations confirming their funds originate overseas rather than China. Hang Seng Bank and Bank of China Hong Kong have issued similar requirements.

The tighter controls add a regulatory dimension to the liquidity story. While southbound flows via Stock Connect remain the primary channel for mainland capital entering Hong Kong equities, the new account-opening rules could temper the pace of capital migration through informal channels that previously supplemented official flows.

For investors, the interplay between capital inflows, population growth, and regulatory tightening will determine the trajectory of both Hong Kong stocks and property. The Hang Seng Index's valuation multiple has become increasingly sensitive to southbound flow momentum, while the residential property market faces a demand-supply equation that now depends as much on immigration policy as on interest rates.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.