A conditional ceasefire offer from Hezbollah on April 15 was met with a defiant response from Israel, which warned of a potential new conflict with Iran while vowing to continue its military campaign.
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Hezbollah offers ceasefire with 1 condition as Israel warns of new Iran conflict
Lebanon's Hezbollah has agreed to a ceasefire but will not accept a repeat of past agreements where Israel evaded its responsibilities, a senior official for the group said, drawing a sharp rebuke from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who vowed to continue military operations. The exchange on April 15 signals a fragile geopolitical landscape, with Israel simultaneously preparing for a renewed conflict with Iran.
"Hezbollah agrees to a ceasefire, but we do not accept a repeat of the situation where our side complies while the Israeli side shirks its responsibility," Mahmoud Qamati, vice chairman of Hezbollah's political council, said in an interview with Lebanon's Al-Jadeed TV.
Later that evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Israel is ready for any scenario involving Iran and would continue its military actions against Hezbollah. He outlined a dual approach of continuing to fight the group while engaging in negotiations with Lebanon, aimed at expelling Hezbollah and achieving a "lasting peace through strength." Netanyahu also noted that the U.S. has kept Israel informed of its contacts with Iran and that both countries seek the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and its enrichment capabilities.
The escalating rhetoric threatens to ignite a wider regional conflict, creating significant uncertainty for global markets. The primary risk centers on potential disruptions to critical shipping lanes in the Middle East, which could cause a sharp increase in oil prices. A broader conflict could also trigger a significant flight-to-safety, boosting traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar while weighing heavily on global equity markets.
This situation echoes previous escalations in the region. The last major cross-border conflict in 2006 resulted in a nearly 15 percent spike in Brent crude prices over the following month as markets priced in the risk of a prolonged disruption. While direct conflict was avoided then, the current environment, with heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, suggests the potential for a more severe market reaction should the situation deteriorate further.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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