Key Takeaways
Hedera's native HBAR token is trading near $0.091 ahead of a 4 billion token unlock scheduled for the second quarter, an event that history suggests could precede a major rally even as on-chain metrics flash warning signs.
"The last time there was an 8% token release (Q4 2024), $HBAR had one of its biggest ever price spikes of almost 700%," analyst All In Crypto said in a post on X, suggesting the planned release is under control.
The upcoming unlock will release nearly 4 billion HBAR, or about 8 percent of the total supply, between April and June 2026. While many traders fear such a large issuance could create selling pressure, a similar event in 2024 was followed by a rally to a two-year high of $0.35. According to CoinGecko data, HBAR remains 83 percent below its all-time high of $0.56 from September 2021.
The event creates a stark test for HBAR, pitting strong institutional backing and a bullish historical precedent against weak on-chain fundamentals and significant supply pressure. The outcome could determine whether the token breaks down toward a bearish target of $0.050 or begins a new rally based on past performance.
The bullish case for HBAR hinges on a repeat of history. The last time Hedera executed a similar-sized unlock in the fourth quarter of 2024, the token's price surged 700 percent in the following months. Bulls are also pointing to Hedera's growing institutional adoption. The Hedera Council includes major corporations like Google, IBM, and LG Electronics, and carmaker McLaren recently joined the governing body. This corporate backing is bolstered by financial products, with a Canary HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF) accumulating $96.58 million in inflows and a much larger spot ETF from Grayscale expected later this year.
Despite the blue-chip partnerships, some analysts see a different story in Hedera's on-chain data. The network's total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance protocols is less than $60 million, a fraction of the nearly $90 billion in the broader DeFi ecosystem. Furthermore, the supply of stablecoins on the network has fallen from over $140 million to just $58 million, according to one report. These figures, combined with a recent slowdown in HBAR ETF inflows to just $2.3 million this month, have led some to label Hedera a "ghost chain" where partnerships have not translated into significant on-chain activity, potentially setting the stage for a price decline as new supply hits the market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
