Hayes sees Bitcoin at $250,000 as global money printing accelerates

Arthur Hayes projected Bitcoin will reach $250,000 on continued global money printing, while warning the token could still fall 75 percent.

"We're not going to get sort of a 2008-sized credit event, but we're just going to continue print, print and print, and you're going to look up and see, you know, Bitcoin at $250,000," Hayes said on Anthony Pompliano's podcast Tuesday. "There wasn't really a financial crisis. What's going on?"

Hayes said the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, Japan, China and Europe are all easing in their own way to avoid a coordinated global credit event. He disclosed a 10-to-1 exposure split favoring Bitcoin over gold, with public equity holdings concentrated in gold miners and Exxon Mobil. Hayes called the AI buildout the biggest capital expenditure bubble in history, noting that heavy AI-related debt issuance has crowded out both Bitcoin and government bond markets.

Hayes said Bitcoin's all-time high of $125,000 was only twice the previous cycle's peak, which he called unimpressive by historical standards. He also warned that "Bitcoin could go down 75 percent," urging investors to cover every channel money might be pushed into. The next milestone comes September 9, when expanded U.S. Treasury buyback limits take effect.

Treasury Buybacks Fuel the Rally

Hayes published an essay on August 25 tying Bitcoin's recent price move to the U.S. Treasury's decision to expand its bond buyback program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on August 19 that per-operation buyback limits would at least double, rising from $2 billion to at least $4 billion between September 9 and November 4.

Bitcoin jumped from around $64,000 to above $80,000 after the announcement, touching an intraday high above $81,000 before settling near $79,000. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped toward 4.65 percent and the 30-year toward 5.20 percent before partially recovering. Hayes argues that buying older, long-dated bonds pushes their prices up and yields down, making assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $517 million on August 19, the strongest daily inflow since early May, while more than $4 billion in crypto short positions were forced out of the market during the rally.

AI Crowding Out Bitcoin

Hayes said Bitcoin has been underperforming because the marginal dollar has gone to AI. Heavy AI-related debt issuance has crowded out both the Bitcoin and government bond markets. He drew a parallel to actions taken by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in December 2023, when she increased short-term bill issuance instead of relying on long-term bonds. That shift pulled money out of the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program, with the balance falling from about $2.5 trillion to roughly $100 billion by January 2025.

Hayes disclosed that his fund, Maelstrom, has shifted to maximum risk exposure, including positions in Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi. He has kept a Bitcoin price target near $126,000 by the end of 2026, matching the token's October 2025 all-time high.

The Treasury General Account held between $940 billion and $1 trillion, and Hayes said a large drawdown from that account could add more liquidity if used for future buybacks. Bessent has said the Treasury could use some of that cash for buybacks without changing scheduled debt auctions.

The September 9 expansion of Treasury buyback limits will be the next test of Hayes' thesis. If the larger purchases succeed in pushing long-dated yields lower, Bitcoin could see renewed upside pressure as investors rotate from bonds into risk assets. A failure to move yields could undermine the liquidity narrative that has driven the recent rally.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.