Key Takeaways:
COMEX gold futures rose 1.13% to $4,287.50 an ounce, up more than 5% for the week, ahead of the US payrolls report.
"Gold is no longer rising simply because every macro variable is moving in its favour; it is holding gains even as oil and yields partially rebound," Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager and managing director at Quantace Research, said.
COMEX gold futures climbed from roughly $4,090 on Aug 3 to around $4,350 on Aug 7, a gain of more than 6%, Jonagadla said. He attributed the move partly to a repricing of inflation risks. Brent crude fell from $90.12 a barrel on July 31 to about $83.3, while the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.75% to 4.63% by Aug 4 before rebounding toward 4.67%. The dollar index held near 99.8, about 1.5% below its July 27 level near 101.4.
Justin Khoo, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at VT Markets, said the rally was driven by falling oil prices, weaker US labour market data, lower Treasury yields and changes in geopolitical risk, rather than safe-haven demand alone. Progress in talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude under pressure, while a proposed deal could give Tehran control over shipping through the waterway.
The US nonfarm payrolls report due Friday is the next major event for global precious metals, with forecasts centered on a rise of 80,000 jobs for July after a 57,000 gain in June. July's ADP report showed just 44,000 private-sector jobs added, the weakest since January, pulling the market-implied odds of a September Fed rate move to 57% from 67%. A softer payrolls reading could reinforce expectations of monetary easing; a stronger one could push yields and the dollar higher and weigh on gold.
Silver Outpaces Gold on Industrial Demand
MCX silver futures for September delivery gained ₹5,496, or 2.43%, to ₹2.31 lakh per kg, with 2,943 lots changing hands. In the international market, silver futures rose 3.44% to $61.66 an ounce, outpacing gold's 1.13% gain and reflecting the higher volatility typically associated with the white metal, which is sensitive to both investment demand and industrial expectations. Silver's move to multi-week highs came as gold-related stocks broadly rose, with spot gold surging more than 4% in the prior session.
India's Gold Prices Track Rupee, Import Costs
For Indian investors, international gold prices are only one part of the equation. The rupee-dollar exchange rate, import-related costs and domestic demand also influence local gold prices. With the rupee around ₹95.22 against the US dollar, currency movements can amplify or offset changes in international bullion prices. On the MCX, gold futures for October delivery rose ₹1,272, or 0.85%, to ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams, with trading volumes at 1,283 lots.
Gold's weekly gain is its biggest since January, and the metal sits near the $4,300 level that Jonagadla called an important test. A sustained hold keeps $4,350-$4,400 in play, while a fall below $4,200 would signal profit-taking. Renisha Chainani, chief research officer at Augmont, said gold's clean move above $4,200 suggests a possible rally toward $4,500, while a firm break past $63 for silver could open the way toward $70-71. Chinese demand continues to provide underlying support, with gold-backed ETFs recording 14 consecutive sessions of inflows despite softer-than-expected economic growth data.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
