Gate.io bitcoin whale share triples to 16% as BTC holds below $60,000

The proportion of bitcoin held by large holders on Gate.io tripled to 16% during the second quarter, on-chain data shows, as the token traded below $60,000 in its worst first half since the 2022 bear market.

"Gate.io's bitcoin whale share surged to 16%, the highest level on record for the exchange," a CryptoQuant analyst said in a research note published Monday. "This concentration during a period of sustained price weakness below $60,000 raises the risk of distribution by large holders."

Bitcoin changed hands at $59,300 as of 14:00 UTC Monday, down 1% on the day and roughly 19% in June, according to CoinGecko data. The token is on track for its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it fell 37%, and a third consecutive quarterly decline — a streak not seen since the same year. Ether fell 25% in the second quarter to $1,572, while the broader CoinDesk 20 index lost 12%.

The whale concentration on Gate.io adds a structural risk to a market already under pressure from macro headwinds. Spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded sustained outflows, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish posture, and the U.S. dollar index has held near a seven-month high above 101. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility, as measured by the BVIV index, dropped 5% to 47% on Monday, pausing a two-week climb and suggesting options traders are betting on calmer conditions rather than a sharp recovery.

Whale Flows and On-Chain Signals

The tripling of Gate.io's whale share coincides with broader on-chain signals of long-term holder distribution. CryptoQuant's UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio, which measures the breadth of profitability across unspent transaction outputs, fell to 5.9 — its lowest since 2022. The metric suggests the market is undergoing a "meaningful internal clean-up," though more stress may be needed before the bearish phase exhausts itself, the analytics firm said.

Separately, the Spot Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed metric, which tracks how many old, dormant coins are being moved to exchanges, has posted sustained elevated spikes since late May, per CryptoQuant. That pattern has preceded meaningful price declines in prior cycles, including moves in early 2025 and mid-2024.

Key Levels and What Comes Next

Bitcoin nearly tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its 2023-2025 bull market over the weekend, a level that represents the golden ratio and one of the most widely watched technical supports. The level held, with prices bouncing back toward $60,000. A clean break below it could trigger capitulation, analysts said.

On Deribit, the $60,000 put option now carries nearly $1 billion in notional open interest, almost matching the $1.11 billion sitting in the $80,000 call — the two most concentrated strike levels for at least two months. Should prices slide below $60,000, the next major options cluster sits at $50,000 with $712 million in notional open interest.

The quarterly and monthly close on Tuesday will be a critical test. If history is a guide, July has been a green month for bitcoin in 10 of the past 13 years, offering a potential reprieve after June's 19% slide. But with ETF outflows showing no sign of slowing and the Fed's next meeting on July 29-30, the macro calendar offers few obvious catalysts for a reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.