Ethereum whale cohort hits record low 11.04M ETH amid conflicting signals

The Ethereum whale cohort holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ETH has fallen to 11.04 million tokens, the lowest balance in the dataset's history, as sustained distribution by mid-tier large holders diverges from accumulation among the network's biggest wallets.

On-chain analytics platform Alphractal reported the cohort balance hit 11.04M ETH, down roughly 62% from the early-2022 peak of 28.83M ETH. The decline accelerated over the past 12 months, with holdings dropping nearly 50% from about 22M ETH in mid-2025, according to Alphractal data.

"The Ethereum 100K–1M ETH balance cohort just printed 11.04M ETH — the lowest reading on the entire chart history," Alphractal said in a post.

The data cannot confirm whether the outflows reflect outright selling or relocation into staking contracts, restaking protocols, or ETF custodians. Assets moved into those vehicles would leave the 100K–1M wallet tier but remain within the Ethereum ecosystem.

A Tale of Two Whale Cohorts

While the 100K–1M ETH cohort has been distributing, larger whales tell a different story. Santiment data shows wallets holding at least 100,000 ETH now collectively control 22.03% of all Ethereum in circulation — a nine-week high in supply concentration. Those wallets hold a combined 17.41M ETH, marking a return to accumulation after a period of distribution.

The divergence emerged as Ethereum's price slipped below $2,000 and later crashed toward the $1,500 zone. Retail sentiment turned bearish during the selloff, but large investors with longer time horizons appeared to interpret the downturn as a buying opportunity.

Staking Demand Remains Strong

Staking behavior reinforces the bullish long-term thesis. Current validator queue data shows approximately 3.1M ETH, worth about $5.45 billion, waiting to be staked, while only about 49,700 ETH is queued for unstaking — a ratio of nearly 62-to-1 in favor of staking demand.

In previous cycles, strong staking participation helped strengthen recovery phases by reducing the supply of coins available for panic selling. The current imbalance suggests long-term participants remain willing to lock capital into Ethereum despite short-term volatility.

Institutional Whale Activity

Several notable on-chain moves underscore the mixed signals. A wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin moved 80,000 ETH, worth roughly $123.5 million, into MakerDAO-linked wallets — a move aimed at reducing liquidation risk while maintaining long-term exposure, rather than selling into weakness.

Separately, Chinese investment firm Longling Capital transferred 10,000 ETH, valued at approximately $15.68 million, to Binance, according to on-chain tracker AmberCN. Large deposits to centralized exchanges are frequently interpreted as a potential precursor to selling.

Meanwhile, blockchain data suggests the Pando Rings hacker wallet spent nearly $10 million in DAI to purchase over 6,200 ETH near the $1,600 range, signaling opportunistic buying at discounted levels.

What This Means for Ethereum

The conflicting whale signals create an uncertain near-term outlook. Sustained distribution by the 100K–1M ETH cohort — a 62% reduction from peak holdings — could indicate institutional-scale holders rotating capital or preparing for a significant market move. Yet the simultaneous accumulation by larger wallets and overwhelming staking demand suggest the network's most committed participants are doubling down.

Ethereum's ability to defend the $1,500 support zone will likely determine the next directional move. A failure to hold that level could expose ETH to further downside before any sustainable trend reversal begins. Conversely, sustained whale buying and staking inflows could provide a floor for prices in the weeks ahead.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.