Ethereum slides to $1,581 as bears target $1,490 breakdown

Ethereum fell 3.2% to $1,581 as of 02:00 UTC on June 27, with all major moving averages converging overhead as resistance and the MACD histogram frozen at zero — a configuration that has historically resolved to the downside 60% of the time, according to Coinglass data.

"The compression between the $1,520 support zone and the $1,760-$1,810 supply range is creating a coiled spring, but the lack of spot buying conviction in the Cumulative Volume Delta suggests any bounce may be short-lived," Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen, said.

The liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidity cluster between $1,670 and $1,720 that could attract price action in a short-term upside sweep, but open interest across major exchanges has declined 8% in the past 24 hours to $8.2 billion, per Coinglass. Funding rates on Binance and OKX have flipped negative, indicating short positioning dominance. The $1,520-$1,550 demand zone absorbed heavy selling pressure earlier this week, triggering a bounce from $1,530, but the recovery has stalled below the $1,600 psychological level.

If Ethereum fails to hold above $1,520, bears are targeting a drop to $1,490 — a level that, if breached, could trigger a cascade of long liquidations and accelerate the selloff toward $1,400. Conversely, a reclaim of the $1,670-$1,720 liquidity zone would be the first step toward challenging the $1,760-$1,810 supply range, but the 60% historical probability of bearish resolution keeps the downside bias firmly in play.

Why the $1,490 Level Matters

A break below $1,490 would mark a new local low for Ethereum, extending the decline from the $2,000 level last tested in May. The $1,490 area corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-May rally, a level that often acts as a final support before a trend reversal or acceleration lower. Cumulative liquidation data from Coinglass shows $420 million in long positions sitting below $1,500 across Binance, OKX, and Bybit, meaning a breakdown could trigger forced selling that compounds the move.

The Case for a Dead-Cat Bounce

Despite the bearish structure, the dense liquidity pocket at $1,670-$1,720 creates a mechanical incentive for price to sweep higher before resuming the downtrend. Short positioning dominance — funding rates have been negative for three consecutive days — means any upward move could trigger short squeezes that amplify the rally. However, the weakness in Cumulative Volume Delta and the still-recovering RSI suggest spot buyers are not stepping in with conviction, raising the probability that any recovery is a dead-cat bounce rather than a trend reversal.

What to Watch Next

The immediate catalyst is whether Ethereum can hold the $1,520-$1,550 demand zone through the weekly close on June 28. A close below $1,520 would confirm the breakdown and open the path to $1,490. On the upside, a weekly close above $1,600 would be the first sign of stabilization, but a full recovery requires reclaiming the $1,760-$1,810 supply zone with volume — a scenario that looks unlikely given the current CVD and funding rate data.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.