DWF Labs warns Strategy, BitMine could crash Bitcoin to $10,000

DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev warned that two of crypto's largest corporate treasuries could trigger a cascading selloff pushing Bitcoin to levels not seen since the last deep bear cycle.

Bitcoin faces a potential crash to $10,000-$20,000 if Strategy and BitMine are forced to liquidate their corporate crypto holdings, DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev warned.

"I cross my fingers and pray this doesn't happen, but if it does, users should consider what strategies to adopt if Bitcoin crashes to $10,000 to $20,000," Grachev said on X.

Strategy holds 843,706 BTC at an average price of $75,699, representing an unrealized loss of approximately $12.27 billion. BitMine holds 5,416,901 ETH at an average price of $3,500, with an unrealized loss of roughly $10.35 billion. The warning comes as Bitcoin recently broke below $60,000 as more than $1.7 billion in weekly spot ETF outflows — the largest in over a year — and over $1 billion in 24-hour liquidations swept the market, according to CoinGecko and Coinglass data.

A forced unwind by either firm could trigger a self-reinforcing liquidation spiral, pushing prices into territory not seen since the previous bear cycle low. Grachev framed his post as a thought exercise rather than a prediction, but the timing highlights the fragility of current market conditions.

$12.27 Billion in Unrealized Losses at Strategy

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury at 843,706 BTC. Its average purchase price of $75,699 per coin means the position is underwater by roughly $12.27 billion at current prices. The firm recently sold 32 BTC for the first time since 2022, a departure from its long-standing accumulation strategy.

Its variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, STRC, slipped below $95, TradingView data shows, while MSTR shares have pulled back sharply from prior highs. BitMine faces a similar dynamic: the Ethereum-focused treasury holds 5,416,901 ETH acquired at an average price near $3,500, leaving it with more than $10 billion in paper losses.

ETF Outflows and Liquidations Compound the Risk

The macro backdrop has added to the pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.7 billion in outflows during the past week, the largest weekly figure in over a year, according to The Block. The broader market saw more than $1 billion in liquidations across centralized exchanges in a single 24-hour period, Coinglass data shows.

A strong US jobs report reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, further weighing on risk assets. Grachev has consistently warned about leverage and structural concentration risk, previously describing a market cascade as a "nuclear bomb" event and warning of ongoing "liquidity wars" that keep wiping out billions across crypto markets.

Not all institutional voices share Grachev's bearish view. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said the bull market remains intact and called crypto the only viable pathway to tokenization at scale. DFG CEO James Wo forecast a near-term Bitcoin correction to the $60,000-$62,000 range before a longer-term peak around $125,000, with a new cycle high expected in 2027 or 2028.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.