Key Takeaways:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 6.45% from its monthly low to close at 48,185.80, as investors weighed a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire against mixed inflation data.
"This cooler core CPI print relief for markets may prove be short-lived," Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, said, noting that worries about oil and the tenuous ceasefire remain.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%. While consumer discretionary stocks gained 2.46 percent on Thursday's session, the energy sector lagged, falling 1.16 percent. The VIX volatility index fell 2.31% to 19.04.
The market's rally reflects cautious optimism that the ceasefire could hold, potentially lowering energy prices and easing inflationary pressures. However, with tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz still below 10% of normal volumes, the full economic impact of the supply shock may not be felt until April, a risk highlighted by several analysts.
The gains built on a strong week for equities, which saw the Dow climb 3.6 percent through Thursday, pushing the blue-chip index into positive territory for 2026. The rally was sparked by a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though tensions remain high after Israel continued to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The situation has kept oil prices elevated, with Brent crude futures trading at $96.06 a barrel. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was last seen at 4.307 percent.
Adding to the complex picture was the March Consumer Price Index report. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, below the 0.3 percent consensus. However, the headline number jumped 0.9 percent, driven by a 10.9 percent surge in the energy index. "March core CPI doesn’t yet reflect the reality of the oil supply shock, where the effect on real wage growth will bear the full brunt in April," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
