Key Takeaways
An 800,000 Bitcoin surge in a key on-chain metric is sending a misleading bullish signal across the market after a six-month-old internal transfer from crypto exchange Coinbase was mechanically reclassified.
"The jump in long-term holder supply traces almost entirely back to a single internal Coinbase wallet shuffle from November 2025, not fresh accumulation," pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost said in a post on X, citing CryptoQuant data.
The long-term holder (LTH) supply appeared to jump from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over the past two days. This occurred as the 800,000 BTC, moved by Coinbase between its own wallets on Nov. 22-23, 2025, officially passed the six-month threshold to be reclassified from short-term to long-term holdings.
The distortion effectively poisons the well for one of Bitcoin's more reliable bullish indicators. Organic growth in LTH supply typically signals rising investor conviction, but this mechanical change forces traders to seek more reliable signals for Bitcoin's next move, with a key resistance level now in focus.
While the LTH signal may be compromised, analysts are pointing to a more immediate and actionable metric: the cost basis for short-term holders (STHs). According to Darkfost, this level currently sits just above $80,000 and represents a significant wall of potential selling pressure.
Traders who purchased Bitcoin more recently are sitting on unrealized losses and tend to sell near their entry price to break even. This behavior creates a ceiling that can cap rallies. Bitcoin was trading near $76,490 as of writing, still well below the overhead supply clustered at the $80,000 threshold. A sustained break above this level would be required to absorb that sell-side liquidity and continue any recovery.
The Coinbase situation serves as a critical reminder of the nuances required in on-chain analysis. A single large internal transfer, while having no immediate market impact, can create ghost signals that ripple through datasets for months.
The 800,000 BTC transfer affected multiple UTXO-based metrics, including coin age, cost basis calculations, and realized value figures. Now, six months later, the distortion has surfaced in the widely watched LTH supply metric. The event underscores the need for analysts to apply context over raw data, distinguishing between organic market activity and mechanical, non-economic movements by large entities like exchanges.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
