Ceasefire with Iran puts Trump's 10-step market playbook to the test

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Iran, and Israel that took effect April 8 is being framed by analysts as a predictable step in a recurring negotiating playbook used by President Donald Trump, one that could precede a violent repricing for stocks and oil.

"With Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire agreement, the ninth step of our tracked 'conflict playbook' has officially arrived," independent macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter said in a note. The firm stated that every major confrontation under Trump has ultimately ended with a narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions."

The tenth and final step, according to the firm, is a sudden market realignment as uncertainty evaporates. The Kobeissi Letter expects a sharp rally in stocks as investors are forced to unwind defensive positions and a rapid decline in oil prices on the prospect of key shipping lanes reopening. This view, however, contrasts with economists who see energy-driven inflation lingering for years.

The ceasefire, intended to "finalize and facilitate" a lasting peace deal, follows a period of intense escalation, including a daring U.S. mission to rescue two downed airmen and a subsequent profanity-laced ultimatum from Trump on social media. For markets, the question is whether the short-term playbook overrides what some economists see as lasting damage to the global energy supply, with Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi telling Politico that pre-war prices "might not be ever" be coming back.

From Tariffs to Truces

The Kobeissi Letter draws a direct parallel between the current ceasefire and President Trump's April 2025 decision to suspend tariffs on major trading partners for 90 days. That move, which came during a period of significant bond market volatility, was followed weeks later by a U.S.-China trade accord, and markets never re-tested their prior lows. The firm notes that the Iran ceasefire announcement comes almost exactly one year after the tariff pause.

This pattern of pressure followed by a deal has been a hallmark of the administration's approach to foreign policy and trade, according to the research note. The framework anticipates that if the Iranian government remains in place, a final agreement will likely involve a combination of sanctions adjustments, regional security frameworks, and nuclear compliance mechanisms.

A Tale of Two Timelines

While traders may be positioning for a short-term rally based on the playbook, the longer-term economic outlook remains clouded. Portions of Asia and Europe are already experiencing fuel shortages and rationing, pushing global prices higher. "Diesel price and gasoline prices are already being affected by that sucking, insatiable appetite for any barrel they get their hands on in Asia," policy analyst Rory Johnston told Politico, warning of sustained price spikes across transportation, farming, and shipping.

Negotiations for a more durable peace are reportedly taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators, with a 45-day ceasefire under discussion to create space for a broader agreement. The success of those talks will determine whether the market sees a brief risk-on rally or a more sustained period of inflation driven by structurally higher energy costs.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.