Cardano drops 4.6% to $0.228 as whale accumulation fails to halt selloff

Cardano fell 4.6% to $0.228 on May 28, extending three consecutive weeks of losses as bearish derivatives positioning outweighed whale accumulation on the network.

Coinglass data shows Cardano's futures open interest on Binance slid to $98 million, down from a May 11 peak of $128.97 million, while the long-to-short ratio dropped to 0.70 — below the neutral 1.0 threshold that indicates active traders are positioned more for a decline than a recovery.

ADA now trades below all three major exponential moving averages — the 50-day at $0.255, the 100-day at $0.275 and the 200-day at $0.347 — forming a textbook bearish stack where each level represents overhead resistance. The relative strength index reads 31.4, edging toward oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative. Broader market conditions compound the pressure: Bitcoin dominance sits at 57.8%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 22, signaling extreme fear across digital assets.

A break below the $0.23 support floor opens exposure to the low-$0.20 region and potentially prior cycle lows if macro conditions deteriorate further, according to technical analysis. A reclaim of $0.245 — the 50-day EMA — would be the first constructive signal for a grind toward the $0.29-$0.30 resistance cluster, though such a move likely requires a broader Bitcoin rally to catalyze it.

Whale Accumulation vs. Price Divergence

Despite the price decline, on-chain data points to continued accumulation by large holders. Whale wallets have been adding ADA positions over the past two weeks, a pattern that historically preceded price reversals. The divergence between rising whale balances and falling spot price suggests accumulation is happening at lower levels rather than aggressive buying into strength.

The Cardano network's DeFi ecosystem has shown some positive signals — DEX fee growth accelerated on key venues over the past 7 to 30 days, according to DefiLlama data. However, total value locked across Cardano DeFi protocols remains a fraction of competing layer-1 networks such as Solana and Ethereum, limiting the token's near-term catalyst potential.

Three Scenarios for ADA

The setup around $0.23-$0.24 is binary. In a bull case, ADA holds the $0.23 floor, reclaims $0.245 and grinds toward the $0.29-$0.30 resistance cluster, catalyzed by a broader Bitcoin rally. The base case sees price ranging between $0.22 and $0.24, digesting losses without a decisive break in either direction as governance updates and roadmap milestones act as slow-burn support. The bear case: a clean break below $0.23 opens exposure to the low-$0.20 region and potentially prior cycle lows.

Cardano's longer-term trajectory depends on whether upcoming protocol milestones translate into real adoption. For now, the chart offers little comfort — momentum is weak, and the path of least resistance tilts downward.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.