Cameco keeps uranium output at 21.5 million pounds on AP1000 demand

Cameco kept its 2026 uranium production guidance at 19.5 million to 21.5 million pounds even as long-term prices pushed into the mid-$90s, with a Westinghouse pipeline of up to 91 AP1000 reactors underpinning durable fuel demand.

"We still don't have utilities coming forward and collectively buying at a volume that replaces what they consume under existing contracts," Grant Isaac, president and chief operating officer at Cameco, said on the earnings call.

Cameco reported second-quarter net earnings of $25 million and adjusted EBITDA of $391 million, down from $321 million and $673 million a year earlier, largely because 2025 included a one-time Westinghouse contribution tied to the Dukovany reactor project in the Czech Republic. Adjusted earnings of $0.13 a share missed the $0.28 consensus, while revenue of $573.46 million trailed the $592.27 million estimate. The company raised its 2026 uranium average realized price outlook to $91-$96 a pound from $85-$89.

Shares rose 4.3 percent in premarket trading to $92.02, even after falling 28.5 percent over the prior six months, as investors looked past the quarterly miss to contract floors in the high $70s and ceilings around $160. Cameco has contracts for average annual deliveries of more than 28 million pounds over the next five years.

AP1000 Pipeline Ties Reactor Builds to Fuel Demand

Westinghouse, in which Cameco holds a 49 percent stake, has identified up to 91 AP1000 reactor opportunities totaling 105 gigawatts across its global markets. The U.S. Department of Energy in June announced a conditional $17.5 billion commitment to support procurement of long-lead components for up to 10 AP1000 reactors, a program designed to accelerate deployment timelines by up to three years. Each reactor, with an 80-plus year useful life, locks in uranium and fuel-services demand for Cameco's core business.

Production Discipline Protects Contract Value

Cameco reaffirmed its 2026 production plan despite flooding-related supply disruptions in northern Saskatchewan that temporarily halted output at Key Lake, McArthur River and, after the quarter, Cigar Lake. The company closed a deal in July to raise its Cigar Lake ownership to 57.4 percent. Management said it remains patient in committing supply, layering in volumes only where contracts capture future upside.

Cameco shares, with a market cap of about C$51.75 billion, trade at a premium multiple that reflects the uranium cycle's upside. The company's ability to hold production guidance while prices climb suggests pricing power, but execution risk in remote Saskatchewan and the timing of any Westinghouse monetization remain the swing factors.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.