BofA raises AKESO target to HKD164 on landmark ASCO data

BofA Securities raised AKESO's price target to HKD164 from HKD162.8 after the company presented landmark HARMONi-6 survival data at ASCO, the first China-originated oncology drug selected for the conference's Plenary Session in 61 years.

"The strong HARMONi-6 overall survival data support a higher probability of success for ivonescimab in both China and global markets," BofA said in a note, reiterating its Buy rating on the stock.

The broker raised its probability of success for the China first-line squamous NSCLC indication to 95% from 90% and for the global market to 65% from 60%. It also increased its assumption for ivonescimab's potential market share in China. The HARMONi-6 trial showed ivonescimab plus chemotherapy reduced the risk of death by 34% versus tislelizumab plus chemotherapy, with a hazard ratio of 0.66.

The price target increase reflects higher revenue and profit forecasts across 2026 through 2028, with net profit estimates raised by 10.9% for 2026, 2.8% for 2027 and 3.6% for 2028. AKESO shares fell 3.3% on the day despite the positive catalyst, with short selling accounting for 35.7% of turnover, suggesting potential profit-taking after the stock's recent run-up.

The upgrade adds to growing analyst conviction around ivonescimab's potential to reshape first-line lung cancer treatment. AKESO is evaluating the drug in more than 30 clinical settings, including 15 Phase III trials, seven of which are head-to-head studies versus PD-1 or PD-L1 therapies. Investors will watch for regulatory filings outside China as Summit Therapeutics advances global development, with a US FDA decision on ivonescimab for EGFR-mutant NSCLC expected by Nov. 14.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.